I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the late-day transaction on the 31st.

・The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 4 business days, and the decline in semiconductor stocks weighed on the index even after interest rates rose

・The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, and Asian stocks are strong

・The top contributor to price increases is Fast Rite ＜9983＞, and Advantest ＜6857＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 4 business days, and the decline in semiconductor stocks weighed on the index even after interest rates rose

The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 4 business days. The front-end transaction was closed at 38119.96 yen (estimated volume of 750 million shares), which was 65.83 yen higher (+0.17%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market continued to decline on the 30th. The Dow average closed at 38111.48 dollars (-0.86%), the NASDAQ depreciated 183.50 points (-1.08%) at 16737.08, and the S&P 500 fell 31.47 points (-0.60%) at 5235.48. Sales, which were disgusted by Salesforce's weak financial results, became heavy, and then fell after being close. In response to the opinion of former governor Dudley of the NY Federal Reserve Bank, sales that were wary of additional interest rate hikes also strengthened and continued to fall. The gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March fiscal year was revised downward as expected, private consumption was also weak, and the market price remained soft throughout the day due to sales wary of the PCE price index, which is about to be announced on the 31st. Meanwhile, when NY Fed President Williams pointed out in his lecture that interest rate hikes were not his basic scenario, sales receded and the market price stopped falling.

Although US stocks fell, the Tokyo market began trading with a buying advantage since it had already been factored in the fact that the impact of sales force was significant. The Nikkei Average remained in the positive zone compared to the previous day due to a reaction against the previous day's decline. In the morning, it was reported that “the government will actively use public money on the scale of 100 trillion yen, such as civil servant pensions,” was also viewed as buying material. However, the decline in semiconductor stocks in high prices pushed down the index, leading to a heavy increase in the price.

In stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, real estate stocks such as Mitsui Fudosan ＜8801＞, Mitsubishi Estate ＜8802＞, Tokyu Fudosan ＜3289＞, and Tokyo Tatemono ＜8804＞ were bought, and financial stocks such as Daiwa Stock Exchange G ＜8601＞, Nomura Holdings ＜8604＞, and Sumitomo Mitsui ＜8316＞ also rose. In addition, TEPCO HD ＜9501＞, Yamato Holdings ＜9064＞, IHI ＜7013＞, and Keisei Electric Railway ＜9009＞ were also purchased.

Meanwhile, since the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index (SOX Index) continued to decline in the US market, Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞, Lasertech ＜6920＞, DISCO ＜6146＞, Screen HD ＜7735＞, and Advantest ＜6857＞ were sold. Also, there isn't even Nidec ＜6594＞, Ebara Seisakusho ＜6361＞, Furukawa Electric ＜5801＞, or KEYENCE ＜6861＞.

By industry, while the securities/commodity futures trading business, real estate industry, electricity/gas industry, petroleum/coal products, banking industry, etc. rose, only 2 sectors fell, pulp, paper, and insurance.

The yield on new 10-year government bonds, which is an indicator of long-term interest rates, has been hovering around 1.060%, and the upward trend has come to a standstill. In the last regular government bond purchase operation (open market operation) of this month announced by the Bank of Japan today, it seems that speculation about early normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan has receded slightly because the purchase amounts of all 5 bonds, such as the remaining period “5 to 10 years or less,” were left unchanged from the previous time. However, speculations about the June operation policy and the June Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting to be announced this evening are deep-seated, and it can be said that the bond market continues to fluctuate easily.

Since a rebalance related to the MSCI regular review will occur due to the big close today, the wait-and-see attitude will intensify ahead of major supply and demand events, and the Nikkei Average is likely to clash at the previous day's closing price level in the later stages.

■The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, and Asian stocks are strong

The dollar and yen were reluctant to decline in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 31st, and after falling from 157 yen 02 yen to 156 yen 57 yen, it returned slightly. The yield on 10-year US bonds is very low, and it's a bit easy to sell in dollars. However, the Nikkei Stock Average remained positive, and yen sales, which were well received by Asian stock appreciation, supported major currencies.

The trading range up to this point is 156 yen 57 yen to 157 yen 02 sen for the dollar and yen, 169 yen 45 yen to 170 yen 08 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.0811 dollars to 1.0834 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・5 brands, such as Awa Paper (3896) and Alpha (4760), etc., are stop-high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・The top contributor to price increases is Fast Rite ＜9983＞, and Advantest ＜6857＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Japan-May Tokyo Metropolitan Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food): +1.9% compared to previous year (forecast: +1.9%, April: +1.6%)

・Japan/April unemployment rate: 2.6% (forecast: 2.6%, March: 2.6%)

・Daily/April effective job offer ratio: 1.26 times (forecast: 1.28 times, March: 1.28 times)

・Preliminary industrial production value for Japan/April: -0.1% compared to the previous month (forecast: +1.5%, March: +4.4%)

・Mid-May manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (forecast: 50.5, April: 50.4)

・Mid-May Non-Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 (forecast: 51.5, April: 51.2)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Finance Minister Suzuki

“Exchange rates reflect fundamentals and are determined by the market”

“Rapid changes in exchange rates are unfavorable”

“There is no change in the basic idea of responding appropriately to movements that have gone too far.”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular