The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in 2023, the growth rate of the cost of gold stocks will slow down. It is expected that in 2024, when gold prices rise and cost control is relatively stable, gold stocks will perform well, and the current market value of gold stocks does not reflect many expectations of rising gold prices, so there is plenty of room to “make up for growth.” The bank expects gold stocks to experience a major upward trend. It is recommended to focus on targets such as Shandong Gold (600547.SH), which has a lower market value per ton of resources.
The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Gold: It is highly recommended to pay attention to the rise in gold stocks. The Federal Reserve began to slow down its contraction. After the Federal Reserve began a cycle of interest rate cuts, against the backdrop of short-term interest rates being locked high by the benchmark interest rate and interest rate cuts were delayed, the short-term gold pricing balance gradually tilted towards the inflationary side, and the short-term real interest rate was expected to rise. The bank expects the price of gold to reach 2,700 US dollars/ounce in 2025. The growth rate of the cost of gold stocks will slow down in 2023. It is expected that in 2024, when gold prices rise and cost control is relatively stable, the performance of gold stocks will perform well, and the current market value of gold stocks does not reflect many expectations of rising gold prices, so there is plenty of room to “make up for the increase”. The bank anticipates that gold stocks will experience a major upward trend. It is recommended to focus on targets such as Shandong Gold, which has a lower market value in tons of resources.
Silver: Gold prices have risen sharply in the short term since March, and silver COMEX futures and silver ETF holdings have increased. In terms of commodity attributes, global mineral silver supply growth is limited, and photovoltaic+AI drives industrial demand growth. It is expected that silver supply and demand will remain in short supply and demand fundamentals will provide strong support for silver prices; in terms of financial attributes, the bank expects that continued increase in market attention will further stimulate demand for silver investment and trigger a rapid rise in silver prices.
Copper: Mine-side supply is limited, and electrolytic copper maintains a tight balance. Global copper supply growth is limited, and supply disturbances from the world's leading mining companies have intensified since 2024. The bank expects future downstream demand growth points for electrolytic copper mainly in the fields of wind power, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles. The global consumption of electrolytic copper is estimated to be 2633/2711/27.88 million tons respectively in 24-26. During the same period, China's electrolytic copper consumption will be 1510/1560/16.03 million tons, respectively. The balance between global electrolytic copper supply and demand will maintain a slight shortage in 2024-2026. It is recommended to focus on targets such as Zijin Mining (601899.SH), where copper production continues to grow.
Aluminum: Domestic production capacity is about to peak, and there is a shortage of raw aluminum supply and demand. On the supply side, there is only 750,000 tons of unbuilt electrolytic aluminum in the country's net new production capacity target, and the release of new and resumed production capacity from overseas electrolytic aluminum is slow. The bank expects that due to the combination of good profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry and the commissioning of additional production capacity, domestic electrolytic aluminum production will reach +2.81% year-on-year to 42.68 million tons in 24, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will peak in 25. If seasonal production restrictions continue in Yunnan, production capacity and output will both peak in 25 years. On the demand side, the main growth point for domestic raw aluminum demand in the future will come from fields such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. Domestic raw aluminum demand is estimated to be 4531/4617/47.28 million tons in 2024-2026, respectively. The bank expects that with the gradual peak of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the increase in demand for electrolytic aluminum, the balance between domestic raw aluminum supply and demand will gradually shift to a shortage. It is recommended to focus on targets such as China Aluminum (601600.SH), China Hongqiao (01378), and Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), which have rich upstream bauxite resources.
Risk warning: The macroeconomic environment fluctuates, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is being tightened repeatedly, real estate demand has declined beyond expectations, and project construction progress falls short of expectations.