Investors Five-year Losses Continue as Transfar Zhilian (SZSE:002010) Dips a Further 4.2% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
Investors Five-year Losses Continue as Transfar Zhilian (SZSE:002010) Dips a Further 4.2% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Transfar Zhilian Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002010), since the last five years saw the share price fall 41%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 22%.
选股的主要目的是找到能够跑赢市场的股票。但关键是要找到足够的赢家,以弥补输家的亏损。现在,一些股东可能会质疑自己对传化智联股份有限公司(SZSE:002010)的投资,因为过去五年该公司的股价下跌了41%。同时,我们也注意到,股价在过去一年表现不佳,下跌了22%。
Since Transfar Zhilian has shed CN¥437m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
自从传化智联在过去的7天里损失了4.37亿元人民币的价值后,让我们看看长期的衰退是否是由业务经济推动的。
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
在他的文章《格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔超级投资者》中,沃伦·巴菲特描述了股票价格并不总是反映公司价值的合理方式。考虑市场对公司的看法如何发生变化的一个不完美但简单的方法是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价的变动进行比较。股票价格并不总是反映公司价值的合理方式沃伦·巴菲特曾经描述过,股价并不总是理性地反映了企业的价值。评估市场对一家公司的情绪如何变化的一个有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
During the five years over which the share price declined, Transfar Zhilian's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 1.2% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 10% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
在股价下跌的五年期间,传化智联的每股收益(EPS)每年下降了1.2%。这种EPS的下降比股价每年下跌的10%要小。因此,过去市场对该公司的业务看法过于乐观。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下图显示了EPS随时间变化的情况(点击图像以显示确切值)。
![earnings-per-share-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240602/0-b762b0db3935bd8315233a2e7af3ac85-0-f331f5a71a5c6cbd610a60e88bef7854.png/big)
This free interactive report on Transfar Zhilian's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
如果您想进一步调查该股票,传化智联的盈利、营业收入和现金流的这份免费交互式报告是一个很好的起点。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Transfar Zhilian, it has a TSR of -37% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是考虑总股东回报(TSR)和股票回报之间的差异。 TSR包括任何剥离或折让的资本筹集(基于股息被重新投资的假设),以及任何股息。因此,对于支付慷慨的股息公司而言,TSR通常比股票回报高得多。就中国神威药业集团而言,其TSR在过去5年中达到了75%。这超过了我们之前提到的股票回报。该公司支付的股息已经提高了总股东回报。总股东回报和股票回报相比之下,股价回报仅反映了股价的变化,总股东回报率(TSR)包括股息的价值(假设已再投资)、任何打折资本筹集或剥离的利益。可以说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的画面。对于传化智联而言,过去5年TSR为-37%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。很明显,股息支付很大程度上解释了这种分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While the broader market lost about 11% in the twelve months, Transfar Zhilian shareholders did even worse, losing 20% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Transfar Zhilian you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
虽然整个市场在过去12个月里下跌了约11%,但传化智联的股东却表现得更差,损失了20%(即使包括股息)。不过,必然会有一些股票在熊市中被超卖。关键是要关注基本面发展。不幸的是,去年的表现为该公司的股东带来了一个劣质的收益,5年来的年复合亏损达6%。虽然罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过投资者应该“在街头流血时买入股票”,但我们警告投资者应该首先确定他们正在购买一个高质量的业务。虽然考虑市场环境对股价的不同影响是值得的,但有其他更重要的因素。正如我们所看到的:我们发现了传化智联的3个警示信号,您应该注意其中的1个问题可能比较严重。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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