When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. One great example is Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000596) which saw its share price drive 136% higher over five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 12% gain in the last three months.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Anhui Gujing Distillery achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 21% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 19% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Anhui Gujing Distillery has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Anhui Gujing Distillery's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Anhui Gujing Distillery's TSR for the last 5 years was 149%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Anhui Gujing Distillery shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 6.2% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 20% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Anhui Gujing Distillery better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Anhui Gujing Distillery (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.