There's been a notable change in appetite for Phreesia, Inc. (NYSE:PHR) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 18% to US$18.62. Revenues of US$101m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.35, an impressive 30% smaller than what broker models predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Phreesia's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$420.9m in 2025. This would be a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 39% to US$1.27. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$427.7m and US$1.66 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$29.13, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Phreesia at US$34.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$23.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Phreesia shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Phreesia's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 26% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Phreesia's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Phreesia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Phreesia (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.