A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation Limited (SHSE:600959)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation Limited (SHSE:600959)
Key Insights
主要見解
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network fair value estimate is CN¥2.75
- Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network's CN¥2.78 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -748%
- 使用2階段自由現金流法,江蘇有線的公允價值估計爲CN¥2.75。
- 江蘇有線的股價爲CN¥2.78,表明其交易水平與公允價值估計相似。
- 江蘇有線的同行業板塊似乎以更高的溢價交易,基於行業平均值達到了-748%。
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation Limited (SHSE:600959) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
在本篇文章中,我們將通過預測江蘇有線未來的現金流並將其貼現至今日的價值來估計其內在價值。我們將應用貼現現金流(DCF)模型進行操作。像這樣的模型可能超出一般人的理解,但它們是相當易於理解的。
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
公司的估值可以用很多種方式來估算,因此我們指出DCF並不適用於每種情況。任何對內在價值想要了解更多的人都應該閱讀簡單華爾街分析模型的報告。
Crunching The Numbers
數據統計
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們採用了所謂的2級模型,這意味着我們爲公司的現金流漲幅設定了兩個不同的時間段。一般來說,第一階段增長較快,第二階段則是增長較慢的階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年的業務現金流。由於我們無法使用任何自由現金流的分析師估計值,因此我們需要從公司的上一個報告的現金自由流量(FCF)進行推算。我們假設自由現金流減少的公司將減緩其減少速度,而自由現金流增長的公司將在這個時間段內看到其增長速度變慢。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在初期年份的減速程度比晚期年份的減速程度更大。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未來的每一美元都比現在的每一美元更不值錢,因此我們將這些未來的現金流貼現到當今的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥617.4m | CN¥685.2m | CN¥743.8m | CN¥794.8m | CN¥839.9m | CN¥880.5m | CN¥918.0m | CN¥953.3m | CN¥987.3m | CN¥1.02b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 14.44% | Est @ 10.98% | Est @ 8.55% | Est @ 6.86% | Est @ 5.67% | Est @ 4.84% | Est @ 4.26% | Est @ 3.85% | Est @ 3.57% | Est @ 3.37% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% | CN¥569 | CN¥582 | CN¥583 | CN¥574 | CN¥560 | CN¥541 | CN¥520 | CN¥498 | CN¥475 | CN¥453 |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿自由現金流量(人民幣,百萬) | CN¥617.4m | CN¥685.2m | CN¥743.8m | CN¥794.8m | CN¥839.9m | CN¥880.5m | CN¥918.0m | CN¥953.3m | CN¥987.3m | 1.02億人民幣 |
創業板增長率預測來源 | 估值增長率爲14.44% | 估值增長率爲10.98% | 估值增長率爲8.55% | 估值增長率爲6.86% | 以5.67%估算的未來每年增長率下,估算值 | 估值增長率爲4.84% | 估值增長率爲4.26% | 估值增長率爲3.85% | 估計爲3.57% | 估值增長率爲3.37% |
現值(CN¥,百萬)折現@8.5%。 | CN¥569 | CN¥582 | CN¥583 | 人民幣574 | CN¥560 | CN¥541 | CN¥520 | CN¥498 | CN¥475 | CN¥453 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥5.4b
("Est" = FCF增長率估計由Simply Wall St)
10年現金流的現值(PVCF)=CN¥5.4b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.
第二階段也被稱爲終端價值,即第一階段後業務的現金流。Gordon增長模型用於以未來年均增長率2.9%的10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均數計算終端價值。我們以股權成本率8.5%的貼現率將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。×(1+g)/(r-g)=CN¥1.0b×(1+2.9%)/(8.5%-2.9%)=CN¥19b
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.0b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.9%) = CN¥19b
終止價值(TV)= FCF2033=CN¥19b/(1+8.5%)
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥19b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= CN¥8.4b
終止價值現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10=CN¥8.4b10總價值是未來十年現金流之和加上折現終端價值,這在本例中是CN¥14b的總權益價值。最後一步是將權益價值除以流通股數。與當前股價CN¥2.8相比,公司似乎接近公平價值。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生重大影響,因此最好將其視爲粗略估計而不是到最後一分錢的精確計算。
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥2.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SHSE: 600959折現現金流2024年6月6日。
![dcf](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240606/0-80d5e3ad3cdde2fe5ef94edf221f54f5-0-4cde0bc56a3fbae8c4bed6a751ee7676.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.988. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
儘管公司的估值很重要,但當您正在研究公司時,不應該只看這個指標。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好您應該應用不同的情況和假設,並查看它們如何影響公司的估值。例如,如果終端價值增長率略有調整,它可以大幅改變整體結果。對於江蘇廣播電纜信息網絡,我們提出了三個額外的需要探索的事項:
Next Steps:
下一步:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network, we've put together three additional items you should explore:
風險:例如,永遠存在的投資風險。我們發現了江蘇廣播電纜信息網絡的三個警告信號(至少有一個有問題)了解它們應該成爲您的投資過程的一部分。
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 您應該重新進行計算並操作它們,因爲貼現現金流的最重要的輸入是貼現率和實際現金流。DCF也沒有考慮行業的可能循環性或公司未來的資本需求,所以它並不提供公司潛在績效的完整畫面。考慮到我們正在研究江蘇廣播電纜信息網絡作爲潛在的股東,使用的是股權成本率作爲是折現率,而不是考慮債務造成的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們就使用了8.5%。
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
- 其他環保型公司:擔心環境問題,並認爲消費者將越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
PS。Simply Wall St應用程序每天爲SHSE上的每隻股票進行貼現現金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的計算,請在此搜索。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。