此外，市场将密切关注工资数据，预计美国5月平均每小时工资月率为0.3%，较上月略有上升，使5月平均每小时工资年率达到3.9%，和前值一样，这表明美联储仍有更多工作要做。Investors will focus on the May non-farm employment report to get a clearer picture of whether the Fed will relax its anti-inflation policy. The US May non-farm report will be released on Friday, June 7 at 20:30 Beijing time.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a slight increase in the number of non-farm jobs added in May, with 190,000 added compared to 175,000 in April.
In addition, the market will closely monitor wage data, with the average hourly wage expected to rise slightly by 0.3% in May, bringing the year-on-year rate to 3.9%, the same as the previous value, indicating that the Fed still has more work to do.
Other employment indicators this week showed a slowdown in private employment growth, with the ADP report showing an increase of only 152,000 and initial jobless claims slightly up.
Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a report, "The May employment report is especially important now. Weak data (less than 175,000 jobs, unemployment rate reaching 4% or higher) will be the last evidence that the economic slowdown will continue. On the other hand, unexpected strength would reinforce the view that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates, boosting US bond yields."
Citigroup expects that non-farm payrolls will increase by only 140,000 in May (down from 175,000), and the unemployment rate will reach 4% for the first time since January 2022.
If so, this may give the Fed more motivation to cut interest rates earlier than expected.
The market currently believes that the Fed's first rate cut will take place in September, and there will be another rate cut in December. Citigroup's view on the US employment outlook is lower than the market's general view, and its view on interest rate cuts is the most deviant so far from Wall Street's general view. Citigroup expects the Fed to start cutting rates in July and continue cutting rates four times before the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs also expects non-farm payrolls to increase by only 160,000 in May, lower than market expectations, because it believes that seasonal adjustments have suppressed employment growth.However, the company also expects an additional wage week this month to offset some of the seasonal distortions.
On the issue of wages, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have similar views, believing that wage increases remain at a level that is inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.
Taking all of these factors into account, both Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that the US May non-farm report may be weak, potentially increasing the Fed's motivation to cut interest rates and thus being bullish for the US dollar and bearish for gold.
USD daily chart.
At 8:50 am Beijing time on June 7, the US Dollar Index reported 104.12.
