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Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Hubei Mailyard Share Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600107) Shares Dive 26%

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 8 20:39

The Hubei Mailyard Share Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600107) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 34% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies operating in China's Luxury industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.6x, you may still consider Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.7x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600107 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry June 9th 2024

What Does Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's Recent Performance Look Like?

Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 14%. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 18% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been respectable for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 17% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What Does Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?

Despite the recent share price weakness, Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

The fact that Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Hubei Mailyard ShareLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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