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Cnlight Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002076) Shares May Have Slumped 27% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 9 20:25

Cnlight Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002076) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 29% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Electrical industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may still consider CnlightLtd as a stock not worth researching with its 12x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:002076 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry June 10th 2024

How CnlightLtd Has Been Performing

For example, consider that CnlightLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for CnlightLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For CnlightLtd?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, CnlightLtd would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 1.5% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 55% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 24% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that CnlightLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

CnlightLtd's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that CnlightLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CnlightLtd that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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