Earnings Are Growing at China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd (SZSE:002939) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Earnings Are Growing at China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd (SZSE:002939) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002939) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 50% over a half decade. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 11% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 4.3% in the same timeframe.
对许多人来说,投资的主要目的是比整体市场产生更高的回报。但即使是最好的股票选手,也只能靠选择获胜。因此,我们不会责怪长期持有 OGE Energy Corp. (纽交所:oge energy) 股票的股东对其决定产生怀疑,因为股票在半个十年中下跌了 15%。一些股票的选择是必须的。所以,长期持有中国长城证券股份有限公司(SZSE:002939)的股东对他们持有股票的决定产生怀疑是可以理解的,因为股票在半个十年的时间里下跌了50%。最近的跌幅有所加快,股价在过去三个月下跌了11%。但是,有人可以说,价格已受到同期大盘下跌4.3%的影响。
Since China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd has shed CN¥1.0b from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
由于中国长城证券股份有限公司在过去7天内损失了10亿元人民币,让我们来看看长期的下跌是否是由业务经济驱动的。
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
为了概述本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的话:短期内,市场是一台投票机,但长期来看,它是一台衡重机。思考一家公司的市场感知如何转变的一种不完美但简单的方法是将每股收益(EPS)变化与股价变动进行比较。
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.0% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
在股价下跌的不幸半十年期间,中国长城证券股份有限公司的每股收益(EPS)实际上每年提高了5.0%。鉴于股价反应,人们可能会怀疑在此期间EPS不是业务表现的良好指南(也许是由于一次性损失或收益),或者市场曾经非常乐观,因此尽管EPS有所改善,股票仍然令人失望。
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
由于EPS增长与股价下跌之间缺乏相关性,因此值得查看其他指标以尝试理解股价走势。
We don't think that the 1.6% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. The revenue decline of 1.2% isn't too bad. But it's quite possible the market had expected better; a closer look at the revenue trends might explain the pessimism.
我们认为1.6%不会对股价造成很大影响,因为这相当小,与股息相当。 1.2%的营业收入下降也不算太糟糕。但是很可能市场预期会更好;审查收入趋势可能会解释悲观情绪。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240612/0-32f1c663355d4d1f75e5a03a94147df5-0-5dad103fbf1d81b720534c78831623ce.png/big)
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
你可以在这个免费的互动图表中看到它的资产负债表如何随着时间的推移而加强(或削弱)。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd the TSR over the last 5 years was -47%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是考虑总股东回报(TSR)和股票回报之间的差异。 TSR包括任何剥离或折让的资本筹集(基于股息被重新投资的假设),以及任何股息。因此,对于支付慷慨的股息公司而言,TSR通常比股票回报高得多。就中国神威药业集团而言,其TSR在过去5年中达到了75%。这超过了我们之前提到的股票回报。该公司支付的股息已经提高了总股东回报。总股东回报和股票回报虽然股价回报仅反映股价的变化,TSR包括股息的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折扣的资本筹集或分拆的好处。可以说,TSR给出了一张更全面的股票回报图片。 我们注意到,中国长城证券股份有限公司的TSR在过去5年中为-47%,比上述股价回报要好。当然,股息支付很大程度上解释了这种背离!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While the broader market lost about 13% in the twelve months, China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd shareholders did even worse, losing 17% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
尽管12个月的整体市场损失约为13%,但中国长城证券股份有限公司的股东表现得更差,损失了17%(包括股息在内)。 但是,股价可能仅受到更广泛市场焦虑的影响。 了解基本面是否有良好的机会可能是值得一试的。不幸的是,去年的表现可能表明还存在未解决的问题,因为它比过去半个十年的年化亏损8%还要糟。一般而言,长期股价疲软可能是一个不好的迹象,尽管持异议的投资者可能希望研究该股以期望逆转。跟踪股票的长期表现总是很有趣的。但是,要更好地了解中国长城证券股份有限公司,我们需要考虑许多其他因素。例如:承担风险 - 中国长城证券股份有限公司有1个警告标志,我们认为您应该知道。
But note: China Great Wall SecuritiesLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
请注意:中国长城证券股份有限公司可能不是最好的股票购买选择。因此,看看这个自由列表,其中包含过去收益增长有趣的公司(和更多的增长预测)是值得一看的。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。