Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.3% to US$99.42 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$398m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.42, missing estimates by 7.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Oxford Industries' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.61b in 2025. This would be a modest 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 227% to US$8.46. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.64b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.40 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$106, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Oxford Industries at US$120 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$92.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Oxford Industries is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oxford Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Oxford Industries.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Oxford Industries. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$106, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Oxford Industries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Oxford Industries analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Oxford Industries , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com