According to the data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (the number of invoices issued by enterprises, not the terminal sales caliber, the same below), in May 2024, the truck market in our country sold a total of 298,700 vehicles, a decrease of 4% from April this year, but a year-on-year growth of 2%. Compared with May last year, the four subdivided markets of trucks have ups and downs.
As the largest and most competitive subdivided market in the truck market, the performance of the Chinese light truck market (including light trucks, small trucks, pickup trucks, etc., hereinafter referred to as 'light trucks') in May 2024 was as follows: sales of 157,200 units, a 1% decrease from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and an increase of 3 percentage points from April (when the light truck market in May 2024 increased by 4% year-on-year), achieving '3 consecutive increases' this year and the fourth increase in the light truck market since this year.
In May, the truck market as a whole increased by 2% year-on-year. Among them, the heavy truck market increased by a small percentage of 1% year-on-year, but the micro truck market decreased by 14% year-on-year, falling behind the truck market's 'large cap'. The medium truck and light truck markets grew by 34% and 7% year-on-year respectively compared with the same period last year, outpacing the truck market's 'large cap'. Judging from the cumulative sales volume, although the light truck market has achieved '3 consecutive increases' in the recent months of March-May, due to a 35% year-on-year decrease in February, the cumulative increase in the light truck market after May was only 4%, still lower than the cumulative increase of 6% in the truck market, underperforming the truck market's 'large cap'. Moreover, the light truck market is the only subdivided market among the four truck subdivided markets where the cumulative growth rate from January to May is behind the market's 'large cap'.
Looking at the sales volume of May in the past decade, the normal range for the light truck market in May is between 130,000-180,000 units. Six of the past ten years have been in this range. The sales volume of May in 2020 and 2021 exceeded this level, while that of May in 2022 and 2016 was lower than this level. The sales volume of 157,200 units in May this year is within the normal range, ranking fourth in the past decade. From January to May 2024, the sales volume of the light truck market ranked the second, sixth, fourth, fifth, and fourth in the past decade. From this perspective, the light truck market this year is still relatively exciting, but the recent trend of returning to calm is also evident.
From the cumulative sales volume, 700,000-850,000 units are the normal range of cumulative sales volume in the light truck market from January to May in the past decade. Seven of the past ten years have had cumulative sales volume in this range. The cumulative sales volume of the light truck market from January to May this year is 806,900 units, also within this range, ranking third in the past decade. One could describe this as the 'simple mode' set for the light truck market in 2024, with January marking the 'high sales volume' of the second decade, up 82% year-on-year, seemingly making the game easy; however, the over 30% decrease in February and the slight increase (+0.1%) in March made it difficult for the light truck market this year. In April and May, it was obvious that the light truck market has returned to normal mode (the cumulative increase is only 4% at present, as shown in the figure below).
Six companies sold more than 10,000 vehicles in a month, Fukuda leads the sales list, and Da Tong ranks among the top ten.
In May, the overall light truck market achieved a year-on-year growth of 7%, with the performance of each automotive company becoming the focus. How did each automotive company perform in the light truck market?
Sales of mainstream light-duty trucks (including small trucks and pickup trucks) of various automotive companies in May 2024 (unit: vehicles)
In May 2024, there were six companies with sales of over 10,000 light trucks, which was the same as in April. FAW (600166.SH), Changan, Great Wall (601633.SH), Dongfeng, JAC (600418.SH), and JMC (000550.SZ) each sold 34,700, 18,200, 15,100, 14,000, 13,500, and 10,100 light trucks in May, respectively, with monthly market shares of 22.08%, 11.55%, 9.61%, 8.91%, 8.6%, and 6.41%. In May 2024, the top ten companies in light truck market sales accounted for a combined share of 84.8%, with the top five companies accounting for over 60%, reaching 60.76%.
In May 2024, the light truck market fell by 1% from the previous month, and the sales of many companies showed a significant decline compared with April. Only FAW, Changan, Xinyuan Motor, Da Tong, and Da Yun achieved a month-on-month increase in sales among the top 12 companies in terms of sales. Compared with the same period last year, growth is not the only theme of the light truck market in May, with 7 of the top 10 companies in sales achieving growth and 3 experiencing a decline. Among them, Changan, JAC, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Xinyuan Motor, and Far Journey achieved a year-on-year growth of 11%, 7.3%, 21%, 62%, and 45% respectively, achieving growth while outperforming the light truck market's 'large cap'. FAW and Dongfeng both achieved a year-on-year increase of 6% and 4% respectively. Meanwhile, there was still more than one company whose sales in May decreased by double digits year-on-year, with the most severe decrease being 19%.
In May 2024, Fukuda sold 34,700 units of light trucks, accounting for 22.08% of the monthly market share, and won the championship on the monthly sales list of the light truck market with a year-on-year and month-on-month growth. It continued to dominate the light truck market and has sold 177,400 units year-to-date, leading the closest competitor by more than 85,000 units, early launching another year of leading performance.
Compared with April, there were significant changes in the sales ranking of the light truck market in May: in addition to Fukuda, Dongfeng, JAC, JMC, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Xinyuan Motor, which ranked fourth to eighth, respectively, maintaining their previous positions, Changan rose to second place on the monthly list (compared with third in April) and Da Tong rose to ninth (compared with eleventh in April), while Da Yun re-entered the top 10, ranking 11th in May (compared with 15th in April). With ups and downs in sales rankings, the intense competition of the light truck market is evident, making it a fascinating market.
From the cumulative sales, in January to May of this year, the light truck market sold a cumulative total of 806,900 vehicles, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4%, which is about 31,600 more than the cumulative sales in January to May of last year. Specifically, Foton, Changan, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Jiangling, Xinyuan, FAW Jiefang, and other companies are in the upward range, with Xinyuan and Jiefang having the highest growth rate. These two companies increased by 95% and 59% respectively in January to May of this year, compared with the same period last year. The cumulative sales growth of Changan, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Jiangling, and other companies was also higher than the 4% growth of the overall light truck market. Foton, ranked first, saw a small year-on-year increase of 2% in January to May of this year. Meanwhile, there are still many companies in the downward range, and some companies have cumulatively dropped by more than 10%.
Compared with the same period last year, Changan, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Jiangling, Xinyuan, FAW Jiefang, and other companies have increased their market share, with Xinyuan, Jiefang, and Changan seeing the most significant increases. In January to May of this year, the cumulative share of the three companies increased by 2.49, 1.05, and 0.96 percentage points, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Jiangling, and FAW Jiefang also increased their shares by 0.41, 0.34, 0.3, and 0.13 percentage points, respectively (as shown in the figure above). At the same time, many companies saw a decline in their share compared with the same period last year, and some companies have dropped by more than 1 percentage point. However, it is still early in 2024, and there is still a chance for these lagging companies to catch up.
Xinyuan has entered the top seven in cumulative sales, while Jiefang/Yuancheng competes for the top ten.
In 2023, the suspense of the top ten in the light truck industry's relegation zone mainly focused on Xinyuan Auto, Jiangxi Isuzu, and FAW Jiefang. Xinyuan Auto finally ranked tenth with a total annual sales volume of 64,500 vehicles, successfully entering the top ten of the 2023 light truck industry from the 11th at the end of 2022.
After May 2024, the fate of the three "little buddies" is drastically different: In January, Xinyuan Auto and Jiefang both entered the top ten, ranking seventh and tenth on the monthly list, respectively, while Jiangxi Isuzu only ranked 13th on the monthly list. In February, Xinyuan Auto entered the top four of the monthly list with a performance of more than 10,000 vehicles, while Jiefang and Jiangxi Isuzu only ranked 11th and 12th in that month, respectively. In March and April, Xinyuan Auto and Jiefang entered the top ten again, ranking 8th and 10th on the monthly list for two consecutive months. However, Jiangxi Isuzu continued to miss the top ten (ranked 12th in March and April). In May, Xinyuan Auto remained in the eighth place on the monthly list, Jiefang ranked 12th on the monthly list, and Jiangxi Isuzu fell to 14th place on the monthly list, further away from the top ten. After May, Xinyuan Auto has sold a cumulative total of more than 43,100 vehicles, temporarily ranking seventh in the industry, leading other little buddies in the relegation zone by several positions and has already secured a place in the top ten halfway through the year. Currently, Jiefang, Yuancheng, Jiangxi Isuzu, and Qingling (cumulative sales ranking 10th to 13th) are hovering around the top ten in cumulative sales. Among them, Qingling Auto currently ranks 13th, selling about 14,800 vehicles less than Jiefang, ranked 10th in the cumulative sales, (the gap has widened since April by about several thousands). The cumulative sales of Jiefang, which ranks 10th, are more than 500 vehicles higher than those of Yuancheng, ranked 11th, (which was a gap of more than 3,000 vehicles after April). Jiefang sold about 8,600 vehicles less than the leading DFT in cumulative sales (the gap has widened since April). The above gaps are not significant in the light truck market, and there are still seven months left until the end of 2024. Which companies can enter the top ten by the end of the year? There are still many uncertainties and variables.
In May, the light truck market sold 157,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7%, outperforming the truck market once again. After May 2024, the cumulative sales growth rate of light trucks was only 4%, which could not be seen as excellent; the future market trend is also difficult to predict.
Conclusion
In May, the light truck market achieved sales of 157,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7%, outperforming the overall market. However, after May 2024, the overall performance of the light truck market was not outstanding, with a cumulative sales growth of only 4%. The future market trend is difficult to predict.