In the global investment master's yield list over the past year, Howard Marks won the championship with a yield of 44.49%, managing assets over 2 billion US dollars.

Howard Marks is considered a pioneer in distressed investing. The Oaktree Capital he founded is one of the largest distressed debt investors in the world.

Core viewpoint of Howard Marks during this dialogue:

1. We have not seen any ups and downs in the US economy, and we have not seen excessive economic expansion. The US economy will not experience consolidation in the near future. It will continue to rise in the next few years.

2. First of all, I want to correct that the current interest rates in the United States are not high. They are only higher than the psychological expectations and the usual levels of people now. However, if we look further ahead, the current interest rate level is not high compared with the historical level. When I started, the Fed's interest rate was 9%. In the 1980s, in order to curb inflation, the Fed's interest rate was as high as 20%, so the current interest rate level is not really high.

At the end of last year, Federal Reserve officials expected an average of three rate cuts in 2024, but the market expected 6 cuts. Now it is already halfway through 2024, and the Fed has not yet cut interest rates. Today, the Fed believes that there may be one or two rate cuts in 2024, and the first rate cut may be in September.

After a period of time, the Fed may announce that the US has defeated inflation before cutting interest rates.But I believe that even if interest rates are lowered, they will remain at around 3%. This is lower than the historical level, but compared with the period from 2001 to 2021, a 3% interest rate is definitely high. A 3% interest rate actually has certain benefits. The interest rate around 3% is neutral, neither stimulating nor tightening.I think this Fed must want to return to the neutral interest rate level.

3. Stocks of AI companies such as Nvidia are of course very expensive, but I will not say that AI is a bubble. The word 'bubble' can only appear around new things, and it is impossible for traditional assets that everyone is familiar with to appear bubbles. Bubbles only occur in new fields.

If we remove the seven giants of the US stock market (Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla), the US stock market is still very attractive and it is hard to call it 'overheated.'

4. Oaktree is optimistic about China and will continue to invest in China. Oaktree Capital has invested more than 45 billion RMB in China, and these assets are distributed in China's stock market and distressed loan fields, including corporate loans, including real estate loans. We will maintain our current optimistic atmosphere.

From an economic standpoint, the United States can be said to be a mature adult, while China is still a teenager. If you have teenagers in your family, you will know that there will be many fluctuations (among them). But the future of young people will be the best time. For teenagers, the best ten years are still ahead.

5. A contrarian investor needs to have strong analytical skills and believe in their own analysis. Actions need strong confidence, courage, and inner strength, and should not be influenced by emotions. Just mentioned, excesses always occur in cycles, and emotional tendencies often make us do the wrong things, so we must control our emotions.

6. To invest successfully, the most important trait is to maintain an open mind. In fact, Buffett's initial investment philosophy was to buy stocks at a low enough price in order to have the opportunity to have a decent profit margin, which was known as 'cigar butt' investing. But the problem is: you need to constantly look for new 'bargain sales,' and you cannot hold them in the long term.

Nowadays, the money Buffett has earned from Apple's tech stocks may be more than any other stock. The advantage of growth investment is that you can hold excellent companies for a long time without having to constantly buy and sell. Successful investors need to combine these two areas (value and growth) together and should not refute each other. We need to maintain an open mind.