The Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 34%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 68% in the last year.
After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.5x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 62%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 21% drop in EPS in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 4.7% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it concerning that Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' P/E
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings with six simple checks.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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