The projected fair value for Energy Recovery is US$16.93 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$12.53 suggests Energy Recovery is potentially 26% undervalued
The US$20.50 analyst price target for ERII is 21% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Energy Recovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERII) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
What's The Estimated Valuation?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$30.2m
US$36.1m
US$40.6m
US$44.3m
US$47.5m
US$50.2m
US$52.6m
US$54.7m
US$56.7m
US$58.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 12.22%
Est @ 9.27%
Est @ 7.20%
Est @ 5.75%
Est @ 4.74%
Est @ 4.03%
Est @ 3.54%
Est @ 3.19%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%
US$28.2
US$31.5
US$33.1
US$33.8
US$33.8
US$33.4
US$32.7
US$31.8
US$30.7
US$29.6
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$319m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.3b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= US$652m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$971m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$12.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqGS:ERII Discounted Cash Flow June 19th 2024
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Energy Recovery as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.012. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Energy Recovery
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Currently debt free.
Balance sheet summary for ERII.
Weakness
No major weaknesses identified for ERII.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
What else are analysts forecasting for ERII?
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Energy Recovery, we've put together three relevant items you should look at:
Risks: Take risks, for example - Energy Recovery has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does ERII's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
