According to the Futu News app, as the US Independence Day holiday approaches, it is expected that nearly 71 million Americans will travel, which is expected to break historical records and bring a strong breeze to the oil market. The American Automobile Association predicts that during the week from June 29th to July 7th, about 60.6 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles by car, an increase of 4.8% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, approximately 5.74 million people are expected to choose air travel, an increase of 6.9%, and an additional 4.62 million people will travel by other means.

This expected tourism boom has undoubtedly provided bullish signals for crude oil traders, who have been hoping that the rise in demand during the critical summer driving season can drive the market. The growth of US petroleum consumption will also help alleviate concerns about sluggish petroleum consumption in other regions.

Despite facing challenges such as slowing wage growth and reduced savings during the pandemic, the US tourism industry still shows strong growth. The American Automobile Association pointed out that short-distance travel, which used to be considered retaliatory consumption, has gradually become the norm. In addition, the current retail gasoline prices are below seasonal levels of the past two years, which also provides strong support for the growth of the tourism industry.

Aixa Diaz, a spokesperson for the American Automobile Association, emphasized: "People may be willing to reduce their spending on goods, but they will not reduce their investment in experiences." This reflects consumers' emphasis on travel experience.

The strong rebound in air travel has become a bright spot in fuel demand, and some aviation fuel consumption indicators have reached the highest level since 2019. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the number of passengers flying during the Memorial Day holiday in May increased by about 6% year-on-year.

However, the outlook for gasoline demand is slightly complicated. Although Americans are traveling more miles, the improvement in automobile efficiency may limit consumption growth. RBC Capital Markets data shows that gasoline station spending was flat with the same period last year during the May holiday season. Patrick De Haan, the petroleum analysis director of GasBuddy, said that gasoline demand has been relatively stable so far this summer, and peak consumption has dropped by about 10% from last year.

Despite this, with the rebound of oil prices in June, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rose by 9% and 5% respectively, showing market optimism. OPEC predicted in its latest monthly report that global oil demand will increase by 2.3 million barrels per day year-on-year in the second half of this year, and oil demand in 2024 will reach 104.5 million barrels per day. The EIA also raised its expectations for global oil demand and predicted that global oil demand may reach a new high this year.

Several Wall Street investment banks are optimistic about oil prices and generally predict that oil prices will rise in the third quarter. JPMorgan believes that the decline in oil prices is only temporary. As demand rises, oil prices will rise again. Goldman Sachs predicts that due to healthy consumption and robust demand for transportation and cooling in summer, there will be a supply gap in crude oil, and Brent crude oil prices may reach $86 per barrel in the third quarter. Citi predicts that global crude oil inventories will fall in July and August, with a certain upward risk.

It is worth noting that Buffett is optimistic about the long-term development trend of the oil industry and believes that oil will become a more scarce investment energy. Berkshire Hathaway has recently increased its shareholding in Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US). At the same time, the Biden administration is also considering releasing more oil from the strategic oil reserve to stabilize oil prices.

Overall, despite some uncertainties, the strong growth of the US tourism industry and the rise in global oil demand bring positive prospects for the oil market. With the arrival of summer, the market is expected to further increase its demand for oil, which provides support for oil prices.