Bocom Int'l: BYD Company is the first choice for the passenger vehicle industry to promote DM5.0, and the boarding cycle will continue until the middle of next year.

新浪港股 · Jun 20 22:47

交银国际发布研究报告称，乘用车行业首推比亚迪股份（01211/买入）。随着比亚迪的DM-i 5.0新车型比亚迪秦LDM-i和海豹06

DM-i上量，该行认为会进一步挤压20万元人民币以内燃油车的生存空间。同时，最近工信部的申报目录透露了比亚迪即将推出的三款新车型：宋LDM-i、海狮05

DM-i和海豹07

DM-i，其中宋是比亚迪其中一款最走量的车型（2.5-3万月销量），将对现有~15万元价格区域的对手形成较大冲击。另外，该行认为DM5.0技术的上车周期将会持续到明年中旬，销量有望持续改善。

报告主要观点如下：

6月新能源乘用车零售预计为86.0万辆，环比增长6.9%。

根据乘联会最新数据，本月狭义乘用车零售约为175.0万辆，同比-7.6%，环比增长2.3%，新能源乘用车零售预计86.0万辆，环比增长6.9%，同比增长32.7%，渗透率预计提升至49.1%。在“618”购物节，众多车企推出一系列以限时折扣和置换补贴为核心的促销活动。根据乘联会最新的市场调研数据，6月中旬汽车市场的综合折扣率已经达到23.2%，相较于上个月同期的22.2%，折扣幅度进一步加深。然而，尽管价格持续降低，总体销量并未出现预期的显著提升，消费者观望情绪仍十分浓厚。与此对比，新能源汽车市场得益于新车型的推出和价格的进一步下探，仍然保持着稳定的增长势头。该行预计新能源汽车的市场份额将达到历史新高，渗透率有望持续创下新的记录。

燃油车颓势不可逆，预计下半年新能源车加快抢占燃油车份额。

上月燃油车全月零售91万辆，同比下降23%，已经持续两个月降幅在20%以上。日系如本田中国5月份在华累计销量为66，202辆，同比下降34.66%，1-5月累计销量同比下降16.7%。该行预期燃油车颓势不可逆，6月燃油车销量同比将依然录得较大跌幅。除合资外，今年以来豪华品牌同样录得较大跌幅，折扣率持续扩大。5月德系/日系/美系品牌零售份额均同比下降2-3个百分点，而自主品牌内地零售份额为57.6%，同比增长7.3个百分点。随着下半年较多的自主品牌新车型发布和交付，该行预测自主品牌内地零售份额有望突破60%。下半年新车发布中，该行认为比亚迪宋、乐道L60和小鹏MONAM03会较受市场关注。

BOCOM International has released a research report stating that BYD Company Limited (01211/Buy) is the first choice of the passenger vehicle industry. With the new BYD DM-i 5.0 vehicle model, BYD Qin LDM-i and Sea Lion 06 DM-i will further squeeze the survival space of RBOB gasoline cars below RMB 200,000. At the same time, the recent declaration catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) revealed that BYD will soon launch three new vehicle models: Song LDM-i, Sea Lion 05 DM-i, and Sea Lion 07 DM-i. Among them, Song is one of the most popular BYD vehicle models (monthly sales of 25,000-30,000), which will have a significant impact on opponents in the price range of ~ RMB 150,000. In addition, the bank believes that the uptake cycle of DM 5.0 technology will continue until the middle of next year, and sales are expected to continue to improve.

Last month, the total monthly retail sales of RBOB gasoline cars were 910,000 units, down 23% year on year, with a decline of over 20% for two consecutive months. Japanese brands such as Honda China sold a total of 66202 vehicles in May, down 34.66% year on year, and the cumulative sales from January to May decreased by 16.7%. The bank expects that the decline in the RBOB gasoline car market will be irreversible, and the sales in June will still record a large year-on-year decline. In addition to joint ventures, luxury brands have also recorded significant declines this year, and discounts continue to expand. In May, the retail market share of German/American/Japanese brands all declined by 2-3 percentage points year on year, while the retail market share of domestic brands on the mainland was 57.6%, up 7.3 percentage points year on year. With the release and delivery of more new domestic brand models in the second half of the year, the bank predicts that the retail market share of domestic brands on the mainland is expected to exceed 60%. In the release of new vehicles in the second half of the year, the bank believes that BYD Song, Leahead L60, and Xiaopeng MONAM03 will receive more market attention.

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DM-i, of which Song is one of the most popular models of BYD (monthly sales of 25,000-30,000), will have a significant impact on existing competitors in the price range of around 150,000 yuan. In addition, the bank believes that the on-board cycle of DM5.0 technology will continue until the middle of next year, and sales are expected to continue to improve.

The main points of the report are as follows:

In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars are estimated to be 860,000, a month-on-month increase of 6.9%.

According to the latest data from China Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of narrow-definition passenger cars this month was about 1.75 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars are estimated to be 860,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 6.9% and a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, the penetration rate is expected to increase to 49.1%. During the "618" shopping festival, many car companies launched a series of promotions centered around limited-time discounts and trade-in subsidies. According to the latest market research data from CPCA, the comprehensive discount rate for the auto market in mid-June has reached 23.2%, which is further deepening compared to the same period last month (22.2%). However, despite the continued price reductions, the overall sales volume has not shown a significant increase as expected, and consumer wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. In contrast, the new energy vehicle market, benefiting from the launch of new models and further price reductions, still maintains a stable growth momentum. The bank expects that the market share of new energy vehicles will reach a new historical high, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to set new records.

The decline of gasoline vehicles is irreversible, and it is expected that new energy vehicles will accelerate the capture of gasoline vehicle market share in the second half of the year.

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交银国际：乘用车行业首推比亚迪股份 DM5.0上车周期将会持续到明年中旬

Bocom Int'l: BYD Company is the first choice for the passenger vehicle industry to promote DM5.0, and the boarding cycle will continue until the middle of next year.

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