As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Veracyte, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCYT) shareholders, since the share price is down 46% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 20%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 7.5% over the last week.
While the last three years has been tough for Veracyte shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Given that Veracyte didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Veracyte saw its revenue grow by 30% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. While its revenue increased, the share price dropped at a rate of 14% per year. That seems like an unlucky result for holders. It's possible that the prior share price assumed unrealistically high future growth. Before considering a purchase, investors should consider how quickly expenses are growing, relative to revenue.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Veracyte had a tough year, with a total loss of 12%, against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Veracyte you should know about.
We will like Veracyte better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com