The gold market last week was basically consistent with our reminder on June 17th. The subsequent confirmation of the pullback, the sharp rise, and the turn to decline were all expected. Fundamentally and in tandem with the "tai chi" trend, the opening of the season went back to the starting point after a week, indicating that the tug-of-war between long and short positions will continue.

In the morning of June 17th, we reminded that the direction of gold breaking through was expected to become apparent during the week of 0617-0621 (last week), but the overall trend was a shocker. The actual market was basically consistent with our reminder: Spot gold shook for three days last week, and on the fourth day, it "broke through" (broke through the green resistance line on the daily chart) and rose sharply over 35 dollars, but it plummeted nearly 50 dollars on the fifth day, ending with a sharp narrow negative line at $2321.19 an ounce. [Article on June 17: Gold's breakthrough direction is about to be announced, long and short positions pay attention to these points]

Among them, the breakthrough and upward trend in the Asian market on June 20th, the subsequent confirmation of the pullback, the larger upward trend, and the short-term head on the next day on Friday (June 21st) - explosive decline were all expected. When the gold price encountered resistance near 2370, two overlapping resistance lines of "yellow" can be seen in the daily gold chart.

The basic news also cooperates with the "tai chi" trend. The Middle Eastern situation is uncertain, and American data is good and bad. Last week's released weak U.S. retail sales, but industrial output and manufacturing PMI performed strongly, and initial claims for unemployment and housing data were mixed. This trend is expected to continue for a period of time.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the gold price broke through the green resistance line we called attention to on June 20th, but fell back decisively to the vicinity of the red support line on the next day (also called attention to). It seemed to return to the starting point after a week of opening, indicating that the tug-of-war between long and short positions will continue. According to the rhythm of long-short rotation, gold bulls may wait for an opportunity to exert their strength after standing firm at the beginning of the week in this week (0624-0628). If it rises to around 2387, short-term shorts may once again exert their power.

(Chart: Daily technical analysis of spot gold, source: Yi Huitong)

From the 4-hour chart, the gold price quickly fell from 2368.62 to the 2321 line, almost falling from the upper edge of the recent rebound channel to the lower support line. Pay attention to whether the lower support line of the channel (purple line) can make the price rebound, but it should be noted that the previous two supports have been provided at this lower edge, so there is a possibility of breaking down.

(Chart: 4-hour technical analysis of spot gold, source: Yi Huitong)

If the lower support of the purple color in the above chart is broken, the support nearby will also be relatively dense, and then focus on 2310-2305, 2300-2295, and then 2286 in order. If there is no major bearish news, it is expected that the price of gold will not fall below 2286 temporarily. If it falls below this level, it means that the trend has entered a new stage in the daily chart, and once established, it will accelerate the decline. This is a topic for later discussion. The current initial resistance is focused on 2329-2331, then 2336, 2345, 2350, followed by the range of 2356-2368. If there is no major bullish news, the probability that the gold price will rise above 2387 this week is small.

If the "mission" of the gold price last week was to test the green and red lines in our daily chart, then gold this week needs to focus on the range between the red line and the long yellow line in the daily chart. If there is a breakthrough in this range, the resistance above needs to be focused on is 2377 and 2387; if the red line support is broken, then focus on whether to hold the 2286 support. If the upper and lower bounds of the 2387-2286 range are not broken, the daily chart will enter a new stage.

In terms of basic news this week, there are also a lot of U.S. economic data, but a Fed report may become the "dark horse" that affects market trends: the Fed announced the results of the annual bank stress test during the New York period on Wednesday (04:30 on June 27th Beijing), due to the high interest rates of the Fed, it has brought great pressure on the banks, so this report may cause the market to pay special attention. If the results show that the proportion of banks that meet the standards is very high, it may cause concerns about the Fed's postponing a rate cut, which will suppress the price of gold and other non-U.S. assets. If the stress test results show that a large proportion is at risk, it may cause predictions that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as possible, which will help boost the price of gold and other non-U.S. assets.

Focus on events this week (0624-0628)

Monday, June 24th: No particularly important indicators, the market may digest weekend news and make transactions based on technical signals.

Tuesday, June 25th: 14:00 UK Q1 GDP, 20:30 Canadian CPI in May, Fed Director Bowman's speech during the New York period (02:10 on the next day Beijing time)

Wednesday, June 26th: 09:30 Australian CPI in May, 14:00 German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index in July, 22:00 U.S. New Home Sales in May, 22:30 U.S. Weekly EIA crude oil inventory. During the New York period (04:30 on June 27th Beijing time), the Fed will release the results of the annual bank stress test (preview related above)

Thursday, June 27th: 17:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence Index in June, 20:30 U.S. Q1 GDP, initial claims for unemployment and U.S. durable goods orders.

Friday, June 28th: 07:30 Japan June Tokyo CPI and Japan unemployment rate, 14:00 German retail and 15:55 German unemployment rate, 20:30 US May personal expenses and PCE price index and Canada GDP, 22:00 US University of Michigan consumer confidence.

This article was written and analyzed by Xiruo, for reference only and not as a basis for trading. If reposted, this statement must be retained.