3 points to pay attention to in the afternoon session~ Financial stocks push up the index due to the rise in long-term interest rates.

Fisco Japan · Jun 24 23:20

25日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は続伸、長期金利上昇で金融株が指数を押し上げる展開に

・ドル・円は軟調、日本の円安けん制で

・値上り寄与トップはトヨタ自動車＜7203＞、同2位は中外製薬＜4519＞

■日経平均は続伸、長期金利上昇で金融株が指数を押し上げる展開に

日経平均は続伸。前日比196.74円高（＋0.51％）の39001.39円（出来高概算7億3000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

24日の米国株式市場はまちまち。ダウ平均は260.88ドル高（＋0.67％）の39411.21、ナスダック指数は192.54ポイント安（－1.09％）の17496.82、S&P500は16.75ポイント安（－0.31％）の5447.87で取引を終了した。材料が乏しい中、寄り付きはまちまち。銀行やエネルギーなど、景気敏感株や出遅れ感のある銘柄への買いが支えたダウは終日堅調に推移。一方、先週に続きエヌビディアなど半導体銘柄の売りが重しとなったナスダックは下落した。

米国株が高安まちまちだったことから、東京市場は小動きで取引を開始した。寄付き後は、米ハイテク株安で半導体関連銘柄は弱い動きとなったが、長期金利の指標となる新発10年物国債利回りが0.995％まで上昇したことなどから金融株が上昇。時価総額が大きい銘柄が買われたことで、相対的にTOPIXが強い動きを見せた一方、日経平均もじりじりと上昇し39000円台を回復した。

日経平均採用銘柄では、自動車保険の保険料引き上げが決定したことでMS&AD＜8725＞、SOMPOホールディングス＜8630＞、東京海上＜8766＞など損保株が上昇したほか、長期金利上昇を受けて、りそなホールディングス＜8308＞、コンコルディア・フィナンシャルG＜7186＞、ふくおかフィナンシャルG＜8354＞、三井住友＜8316＞など金融株が総じて買われている。このほか、トヨタ自＜7203＞、IHI＜7013＞、日立＜6501＞も上昇。

一方、フィラデルフィア半導体株指数（SOX指数）やナスダック下落などを受けて、レーザーテック＜6920＞、東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、ルネサスエレクトロニクス＜6723＞、スクリーンHD＜7735＞など半導体株が下落。このほか、村田製作所＜6981＞、アルプスアルパイン＜6770＞、TDK＜6762＞、太陽誘電＜6976＞などアップル関連も総じて安い。

業種別では、銀行業、保険業、証券・商品先物取引業、輸送用機器、鉱業などが上昇した一方、パルプ・紙のみ下落した。

為替は1ドル159円30銭台と円安ドル高は一服している。昨晩は一時158円80銭台と瞬間的に1円弱円高ドル安に振れたことで、「政府・日本銀行による円買い介入」との思惑も強まったが、システムトレードによるものとの観測。ただ、為替は急変動する可能性が非常に高まっていることから、積極的な日本株の売買は手控えられ、プライム市場の売買代金低迷は続くと考える。長期金利も上昇していることから、後場は為替、債券市場を睨んだ展開となりそうだ。39000円前後でのもみ合いを想定する。

■ドル・円は軟調、日本の円安けん制で

25日午前の東京市場でドル・円は軟調地合いとなり、159円70銭から159円19銭まで値を下げた。米10年債利回りの下げ渋りでドル買いに振れ、160円を目指す展開に。一方、ユーロや豪ドルなど主要通貨は対ドルで買い戻され、底堅く推移している。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は159円19銭から159円70銭、ユーロ・円は170円88銭から171円39銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0731ドルから1.0737ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・ＷＯＬＶＥＳ　ＨＡＮＤ＜194A＞、ワンダープラネット＜4199＞など、6銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップはトヨタ自動車＜7203＞、同2位は中外製薬＜4519＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・米・6月ダラス連銀製造業活動指数：-15.1（予想：-15.0、5月：-19.4）

【要人発言】

・鈴木財務相

「行き過ぎた動きには適切に対応していく」

「為替はファンダメンタルズを反映して決まる。安定的な推移が重要」

・林官房長官

「過度の為替変動は企業や家計の経済活動に悪影響を与える」

「為替の過度な変動には適切な対応を取りたい」

＜国内＞

・14:00　4月景気動向指数・先行改定値（速報値：111.6）

＜海外＞

・特になし

In the afternoon trading on the 25th, we want to focus on the following three points.

- The Nikkei average continues to rise, with financial stocks pushing up the index due to the rise in long-term interest rates.

- The dollar-yen is weak due to Japan's efforts to curb yen appreciation.

- Toyota Motor <7203> topped the gainers, followed by Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>.

The Nikkei average continues to rise, with financial stocks pushing up the index due to the rise in long-term interest rates.

The Nikkei Average continues to rise. It ended the morning trading session at 39,001.39 yen (approximate volume of 730 million shares), up 196.74 yen (+0.51%) from the previous day.

The U.S. stock market was mixed on the 24th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session up 260.88 points (+0.67%) at 39,411.21, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 192.54 points (-1.09%) to 17,496.82 and the S&P 500 fell 16.75 points (-0.31%) to 5,447.87. Amid a lack of news, the opening was mixed. The Dow, which was supported by buying in economically sensitive and laggard stocks such as banks and energy, remained strong throughout the day. On the other hand, Nasdaq, which was weighed down by selling in semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia for the second week in a row, fell.

Due to the mixed performance of U.S. stocks, the Tokyo market opened with little movement. After a quiet open, semiconductor-related stocks weakened due to a drop in U.S. high-tech stocks, but financial stocks rose as the yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds, an indicator of long-term interest rates, rose to 0.995%. Due to buying of large-cap stocks, TOPIX showed relatively strong movements, while Nikkei Average edged up and regained the 39,000 yen level.

Among Nikkei Average constituents, insurance stocks such as MS&AD (8725), SOMPO Holdings (8630), and Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) rose after hikes in auto insurance premiums were announced, and financial stocks such as Resona Holdings (8308), Concordia Financial Group (7186), Fukuoka Financial Group (8354), and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316) were generally bought in response to the rise in long-term interest rates. Toyota Motor (7203), IHI (7013), and Hitachi (6501) also rose.

On the other hand, semiconductor stocks such as Laser Tech (6920), Tokyo Electron (8035), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Screen HD (7735) fell in response to falls in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index (SOX) and the Nasdaq. Apple-related stocks such as Murata Manufacturing (6981), Alps Alpine (6770), TDK (6762), and Taiyo Yuden (6976) also generally fell.

By industry, bank, insurance, securities and commodity futures trading, transportation equipment, and mining stocks rose, while only pulp and paper fell.

The exchange rate is in the 159 yen 30 sen range, and the yen's weakness and the dollar's strength have come to a halt. Last night, the exchange rate briefly swung to around 158 yen and 80 sen, briefly falling by just under one yen against the dollar, which strengthened speculation of "yen-buying intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan", but it was believed to be due to system trading. However, as the possibility of sudden exchange rate fluctuations is very high, active buying and selling of Japanese stocks is being held back, and the low trading volume in the prime market is expected to continue. As long-term interest rates are also rising, the afternoon session is expected to keep an eye on the foreign exchange and bond markets, with the assumption of a stalemate around 39,000 yen.

- The dollar-yen is weak due to Japan's efforts to curb yen appreciation.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 25th, the dollar-yen fell from 159.70 yen to 159.19 yen, with a soft tone. Due to the sluggish decline in the yield of the 10-year US bonds, it may turn to dollar buying and aim for 160 yen. On the other hand, major currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar are being bought back against the dollar and are moving firmly.

The trading range so far is 159.19-159.70 yen for the dollar-yen, 170.88-171.39 yen for the euro-yen, and 1.0731-1.0737 dollars for the euro-dollar.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

- 6 stocks including WOLVES HAND <194A> and WONDERPLANET <4199> hit the limit up.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

- Toyota Motor <7203> topped the gainers, followed by Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

- US June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.1 (forecast: -15.0, May: -19.4)

[Important Person's Remarks]

-Minister of Finance Suzuki

"We will respond appropriately to excessive movements."

"Exchange rates are determined by reflecting fundamentals. Stable trends are important."

- Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin

"Excessive exchange rate fluctuations have a negative impact on the economic activities of companies and households."

"We want to take appropriate measures against excessive exchange rate fluctuations."

- 14:00 April Economic Trends Index-Advance Revised Value (Preliminary Value: 111.6)

Not applicable.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～長期金利上昇で金融株が指数を押し上げる展開に

3 points to pay attention to in the afternoon session~ Financial stocks push up the index due to the rise in long-term interest rates.

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