Zhitong Finance and Economics App learned that on June 25, the real estate industry ushered in multiple catalysts. CICC stated that the current real estate policy is exerting force with intensity surpassing that of any previous cycle, and the total demand is correspondingly stabilizing in stages, significantly enhancing the market's confidence that the inflection point of the real estate cycle will eventually arrive. The current market is in a stage of playing policy, waiting for the basic fundamentals of certain regions to stabilize. During this stage, mid- to long-term trading opportunities may frequently appear, and investment should wait for the right timing. Relevant concept stocks include: Greentown China (03900), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Resources Mixc (01209), etc.
On June 25, the real estate industry welcomed multiple catalysts:
1) The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly held a video conference on policy training for purchase-assured housing. The conference emphasized that purchase-assured housing work is an important measure to implement the central government's decision-making arrangements and concrete practice of developing with a people-centered approach. It is also the primary task of promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Localities should vigorously, orderly, and effectively promote various purchase-assured housing-related work. 2) The Ministry of Natural Resources is studying with the relevant departments how to revitalize and use the policy of already-sold but undeveloped land to support local governments to recover and purchase idle land. For the funds gained from land acquisition, the Ministry of Natural Resources plans to provide financial support to local governments through special bonds, but requires local governments to act in accordance with their capabilities and firmly avoid the new invisible debt of local governments. 3) Suzhou released new policies for the real estate market, which proposed that non-Suzhou household registration personnel that actually live within the administrative area of the city can apply for household registration, along with their spouses, unmarried children, and parents (above the statutory retirement age or who have already completed the retirement procedures) who can apply for household registration migration if they meet certain conditions.
In addition, on the same day, many regions issued real estate support policies, including: Yueyang, Hunan: a subsidy of up to RMB 20,000 per set for purchasing a new home and further incentives for families with three or more children; Changchun's housing provident fund loan policy is expected to adjust and temporarily increase the maximum amount of a single loan; the maximum loan amount of personal housing provident fund in Nantong, Jiangsu will be adjusted from RMB 500,000/person to 600,000/person; Changchun's housing provident fund loan policy is expected to adjust and temporarily increase the maximum amount of a single loan, and so on.
Previously, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen issued new real estate policies on May 28. Shenzhen mainly adjusted the down payment ratio and housing loan interest rates, while Guangzhou further optimized real estate policies in terms of purchase restriction, loan restriction, encouraging the replacement of old for new, and land acquisition, etc. and its intensity was at the forefront among first-tier cities. Guangzhou and Shenzhen also followed Shanghai to optimize their real estate policies, and the "de-stocking" action of first-tier cities accelerated. According to data from Wind, as of May 26, Guangzhou and Shenzhen's new housing sales area decreased by -31% YoY/-31% YoY respectively in May. Currently, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have all implemented the 517 policy, optimizing the real estate policies and it is expected they will continuously stabilize the market expectations.
According to the official website data of various real estate intermediaries, recently (5.27-6.2), the trading volume of 77 sampled cities increased by 0.2% MoM, a growth of 9.5% compared to before the new policies (5.11-5.17), and the total volume of second-hand houses in key cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou in the past three weeks all increased by -1.1%/+2.9%/+8.5% MoM, respectively, with sales rising weekly.
At the same time, the sales performance of TOP50 real estate companies in May improved marginally again after March, with sales revenue decreasing by 31% YoY, which narrowed 16pct. According to data from CRIC, using equity sales revenue as the caliber, the TOP50 real estate companies' sales revenue in May was RMB 219.6 billion, down 31% YoY, with the sales revenue of the TOP10 real estate companies accounting for 59%, higher than the annual average of 55% in 2023, highlighting the resilience of the leading real estate companies.
Guotai Junan believes that in June, with policies continuously fermenting and residents and governments exerting forces simultaneously, coupled with mid-year promotions by real estate enterprises, it is expected to result in further improvement of sales data. Looking forward to subsequent policies, considering that the monthly repayment amount is currently the factor that restrains residents the most, the more important policy is the interest rate policy. Therefore, the rhythm of interest rate adjustments and the evolution of land acquisition and storage policies will be the core guidance for predicting subsequent sales indicators.
CICC stated that the current real estate policy is exerting force with intensity surpassing that of any previous cycle, and the total demand is correspondingly stabilizing in stages, significantly enhancing the market's confidence that the inflection point of the real estate cycle will eventually arrive. However, we also need to realize that under the new situation of the real estate industry, the structural evolution of first-hand and second-hand housing is accelerating, and the total supply pressure of new and second-hand housing is prominent. The inertia of the real estate cycle is increasing, and during the waiting for the inflection point to come, we should also have sufficient patience. The current market is in a stage of playing policy, waiting for the basic fundamentals of certain regions to stabilize. During this stage, mid- to long-term trading opportunities may frequently appear, and investment should wait for the right timing. It is advisable to select relevant symbols with high valuation and cost-effectiveness and strong operational flexibility.
Translatable: yes, Reason: , Translation: Greentown China (03900), China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), China Resources Mixc (01209)
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Related concept stocks:
In December 2023, Greentown Group's self-investment project achieved sales of 5,267 sets, with a sales area of approximately 750,000 square meters, and a sales amount of approximately RMB 25.1 billion, with an average sales price of approximately RMB 33,624 per square meter. From January to December 2023, Greentown Group obtained a contract sales area of approximately 6.86 million square meters, and a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 194.3 billion, of which the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group was approximately RMB 127.6 billion. As of December 31, 2023, there was also an accumulated amount of signed subscription agreements that had not yet been converted into sales contracts, with an amount of approximately RMB 4.1 billion, of which the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group was approximately RMB 3.3 billion.
As of the end of December 2023, China Resources Land achieved a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 21.0 billion and a total contract sales area of approximately 1.0128 million square meters. During the same period, equity contract sales amounted to approximately RMB 12.5 billion, with an equity contract sales area of approximately 625,000 square meters.
From January to December 2023, Yuexiu Property accumulated contract sales (including the contract sales of joint venture and associated companies) amounted to approximately RMB 142.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.6%, and the accumulated contract sales area was approximately 4.4508 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.5%. The accumulated contract sales amount accounts for 107.6% of the 2023 contract sales target of RMB 132.0 billion.
In the past three years, China Resources Mixc has become a leading player in the industry with rapid growth in managed portfolio. As of mid-2023, China Resources Mixc had a total contracted area of 380 million square meters and a total managed area of 325 million square meters, an increase of 153% and 189%, respectively, from the end of 2020 when it went public. According to the China Property Management Enterprise Monthly Data of China Index Academy, China Resources Mixc's monthly new contracted area has basically remained in the top four in the industry since the second half of 2023. From July to November 2023, it added a total of 38.54 million square meters, which means that its total contracted area has exceeded 400 million square meters.