Lithium stocks are performing well, Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) rose 7.87%, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose 6.24%.
Following the release of the related draft for soliciting opinions on May 8, on June 19, the Electronic Information Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the "Normative Conditions for Lithium-Ion Battery Industry (2024)" (referred to as "Normative Conditions") and the "Management Measures for the Announcement of Normative Conditions for Lithium-Ion Battery Industry (2024)". It is clear that it will guide the industry to accelerate transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment and promote the high-quality development of China's lithium-ion battery industry.
Shanxi Securities stated that each cycle of lithium mine expansion takes about 3 years. The period of newly added production capacity during the high-price period of lithium carbonate in 2021 is currently in progress. After this round of lithium carbonate expansion cycle ends, according to the price trend of the last round of lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate will still be in the bottom consolidation period for about 1-2 years until new industry demand reappears. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to reverse upward. In March of this year, affected by factors such as the reduction of Australian mines and environmental inspections of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and combined with the replenishment of inventory in the lithium battery industry after the Spring Festival, the price of lithium carbonate rebounded. Recently, due to the strong intention of some miners to raise prices and the cost of corresponding lithium carbonate for newly added low-grade lithium mines is above 100,000 yuan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate between 95,000-105,000 yuan/ton in the future.
Soochow Securities stated that in terms of production, the energy storage battery inventory was reduced in June, and industry production decreased slightly month-on-month. It is bullish that production will increase in Q3 peak season. In terms of profits, Q1 touched bottom and Q2 prices stabilized. Some low-priced orders also have recovered, coupled with the improvement of capacity utilization rate. It is expected that Q2 profits will remain stable or slightly increase month-on-month. In addition, supply-side reforms and slower expansion should lead to a turnaround in 2025, with Ningde, BYD Company Limited, Shenzhen Kedali Industry, Yunneng, Yiwei, and Shangtai as the leading lithium battery companies.