Step Research Memo (7): There is great potential for expanding the student share in the Yokohama/Kawasaki area, and stable growth is expected to continue in the future (1).

Fisco Japan · Jun 27 00:57

■今後の見通し

2. 今後の成長戦略

(1) 小中学生部門

ステップ＜9795＞は中長期的に神奈川県内に特化した学習塾として成長を続けるための戦略として、生徒数の増加が見込まれる横浜・川崎エリアでのシェア拡大を最重要課題として取り組んできた。2024年春の横浜市内の公立トップ校における合格者数は他塾との差をさらに広げる結果となり、県内最難関校とされる横浜翠嵐高校の合格者数についても2年連続でトップで、全体の合格者数の4割強を占めるなど横浜エリアでのブランド力は一段と強固なものになったと評価される。同社では今後も横浜翠嵐で圧倒的な合格者数を獲得することを目標としている。同社の場合、志望校の選定は生徒の自主性に任せているため、横浜翠嵐高校の合格者数が急に増加するということは考えにくいが、横浜・川崎エリアの生徒数を今後も増やす方針であることから、今後も合格者数は伸び続ける可能性が高いと弊社では見ている。また、川崎市内で最難関となる多摩高校については、2024年春の合格実績で59名と前年比17名減となり、トップの塾（124名）との差が開く格好となった。これはSTEP生の志願者が減少したことに加えて、トップ塾が多摩校近隣にスクール数を増やし強化してきたことが影響したと見られる。とは言え、同社もJR南武線沿線や小田急沿線でここ数年、スクール数及び生徒数を増やしてきたことから、2年後までにはトップを奪取することが期待される。

神奈川県内の公立中学校に通う生徒数のうち「STEP」生の占める比率は2023年10月時点で11.0%となっており、このうち、横浜・川崎以外の地域では14.5%、横浜市で9.2%、川崎市で5.0%である。一方、2030年までの人口予測によれば横浜市の北部エリアと川崎市は増加傾向にあるが、県西部エリアや横須賀市は減少傾向が続く見通しであり、横浜・川崎エリアでスクール数を増やしてシェアを拡大する戦略は理に適っていると言える。

同社は当面の目標として、横浜・川崎エリアでの中学生部門の生徒数シェアを15%程度まで引き上げることを目指し、これらエリアで年間3～4校のペースで新規開校を進める計画だ。川崎エリアでは15スクール前後、横浜エリアでは25スクール前後を開校すれば15%のシェア達成が可能と見ており、今後10年程度かけて展開することになる※。生徒数で換算すれば、全体の公立中学校生徒数並びに他の地域のステップ生徒数が横ばいで推移したと仮定した場合、横浜・川崎エリアのシェア拡大で現在の1.34倍まで生徒数を拡大することができる。10年かけて達成したとすると、生徒数の増加ペースは年率3%となる。主要都市部の生徒数シェアを見ると、本社を置く藤沢市で26.0%となっているほか鎌倉市で22.7%、海老名市で19.9%と15%を上回る地域もあり、長期的には横浜・川崎エリアでも15%を上回るシェアを獲得する可能性は十分にあると弊社では見ている。実際、横浜市の青葉区と都筑区では16%台までシェアを伸ばしている。スクール展開のペースに関しては、教師の育成と条件に適う不動産物件が出てくるかがカギを握る。このうち不動産物件の探索に関しては、競合塾が撤退したり金融機関が営業拠点の統廃合を進めたりしている状況から、以前と比べると見つけやすい市場環境になっているようだ。実際、Hi-STEP新百合ヶ丘スクールは、競合塾が撤退した物件に開設している。

※中学部門のスクール当たりの生徒数150人を前提として計算。

また、小学生部門については引き続き「楽しく学ぶ」ことができる学習塾という同社の特徴であり強みを、さらに磨いていくことで生徒数の増加につなげていく考えだ。楽しく学べる環境づくりを教師も意識しながら取り組むことで、入塾する生徒の増加につなげていく。

(2) 高校生部門

高校生部門では、従来3～4年に1校のペースで開校を続けてきた。授業の質を維持しながらスクールを増やす方針のため、新規開校は教師のリソースを確保してからとなる。こうした取り組みを続けてきた結果、大学合格実績もここ数年で躍進的に伸び、神奈川県内の公立高校生を主体とした学習塾としてはトップレベルのブランド力を有するまでになった。2024年は横浜校の増床を予定しているが、今後も人気校舎については移転・増床などを検討する方針だ。また。新規校舎についても前述したように不動産物件が以前よりも見つけやすい環境になっていることから、2025年以降に開校する可能性はある。特に、川崎エリアについては現在、1校もないことから早晩、進出するものと予想される。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　佐藤　譲）

■Future Outlook LeTech <3497> expects an increase in sales and ordinary income of more than 20%, with sales of 2.14 billion yen (+33.8% YoY), operating income of 150 million yen (+7.7% YoY), ordinary income of 100 million yen (+21.7% YoY), and net income of 1.03 billion yen (-11.4% YoY) for the July 2024 term, and has maintained its initial forecast (announced in September 2023).

2. Future growth strategy. (1) Elementary and junior high school department. Step <9795> has been working on increasing its share in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area, where an increase in the number of students is expected, as its most important priority in order to continue to grow as a teaching institute specialized in Kanagawa prefecture in the medium to long term. The number of successful applicants at public schools in Yokohama City in the spring of 2024 widened the gap with other schools, and for the second consecutive year, the number of successful applicants to Yokohama Suiran High School, which is considered the most difficult school in the prefecture, accounted for over 40% of the total successful applicants, further strengthening the brand power in the Yokohama area. The company aims to continue to achieve overwhelming numbers of successful applicants at Yokohama Suiran in the future. In the case of the company, the selection of desired schools is left up to the students' initiative, so it is unlikely that the number of successful applicants to Yokohama Suiran High School will suddenly increase. However, the company expects that the number of successful applicants will continue to increase in the future, as they plan to increase the number of students in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area. Regarding Tama High School, which is considered the most difficult in Kawasaki City, the number of successful applicants in the spring of 2024 was 59, which is 17 less than the previous year, and the difference with the top institute (124) has widened. It is believed that this is due to a decrease in the number of expectations from STEP students, as well as the influence of the top institute increasing its number of schools and strengthening them in the vicinity of Tama School. However, the company has increased the number of schools and students along the JR Nanbu Line and Odakyu Line in recent years, so it is expected to take the top position within the next two years. (2) High school department. Among the students attending public junior high schools in Kanagawa prefecture, the proportion of STEP students was 11.0% as of October 2023. Of this, 14.5% were in areas other than Yokohama and Kawasaki, 9.2% were in Yokohama City, and 5.0% were in Kawasaki City. On the other hand, according to population forecasts up to 2030, the northern part of Yokohama City and Kawasaki City are expected to continue to increase, while the western part of the prefecture and Yokosuka City are expected to continue to decline, making it reasonable to expand the number of schools and increase the share in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area. As an immediate goal, the company aims to increase the share of junior high school department students in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area to about 15%, and plans to open new schools at a pace of approximately 3 to 4 schools per year in these areas. It is believed that it will be possible to achieve a 15% share in the Kawasaki area with around 15 schools and in the Yokohama area with around 25 schools, and the expansion of share in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area could increase the number of students to 1.34 times the current level, assuming that the number of STEP students at other public junior high schools remains stable. If this is achieved over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of students would be an annual rate of 3%. Looking at the share of students in major urban areas, there are regions that have higher shares than 15%, such as Fujisawa City, where the company is headquartered, at 26.0%, Kamakura City at 22.7%, and Ebina City at 19.9%, so there is sufficient potential for the Yokohama-Kawasaki area to achieve a share of over 15% in the long term. In fact, the share has already been extended to the 16% range in Aoba and Totsuka districts of Yokohama City. The pace of school development depends on the development of teachers and the availability of appropriate real estate. As for the search for real estate, the market environment for finding property has become easier compared to before, as competitor institutes withdraw from the market or financial institutions consolidate their sales bases. In fact, the Hi-STEP Shin-Yurigaoka School was opened in a property that had been withdrawn by a competitor institute.

(1) Elementary and junior high school department. (2) High school department.

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Of the number of students attending public junior high schools in Kanagawa prefecture, the proportion of STEP students was 11.0% as of October 2023. Of this, 14.5% were in areas other than Yokohama and Kawasaki, 9.2% were in Yokohama City, and 5.0% were in Kawasaki City. On the other hand, according to population forecasts up to 2030, the northern part of Yokohama City and Kawasaki City are expected to continue to increase, while the western part of the prefecture and Yokosuka City are expected to continue to decline, making it reasonable to expand the number of schools and increase the share in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area.

As an immediate goal, the company aims to increase the share of junior high school department students in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area to about 15%, and plans to open new schools at a pace of approximately 3 to 4 schools per year in these areas. It is believed that it will be possible to achieve a 15% share in the Kawasaki area with around 15 schools and in the Yokohama area with around 25 schools, and the expansion of share in the Yokohama-Kawasaki area could increase the number of students to 1.34 times the current level, assuming that the number of STEP students at other public junior high schools remains stable. If this is achieved over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of students would be an annual rate of 3%. Looking at the share of students in major urban areas, there are regions that have higher shares than 15%, such as Fujisawa City, where the company is headquartered, at 26.0%, Kamakura City at 22.7%, and Ebina City at 19.9%, so there is sufficient potential for the Yokohama-Kawasaki area to achieve a share of over 15% in the long term. In fact, the share has already been extended to the 16% range in Aoba and Totsuka districts of Yokohama City. The pace of school development depends on the development of teachers and the availability of appropriate real estate. As for the search for real estate, the market environment for finding property has become easier compared to before, as competitor institutes withdraw from the market or financial institutions consolidate their sales bases. In fact, the Hi-STEP Shin-Yurigaoka School was opened in a property that had been withdrawn by a competitor institute.

※ Calculation based on 150 students per school in the junior high school department.

In the case of the elementary school department, the company aims to achieve an increase in the number of students by further honing its unique strengths of being a learning institute where students can enjoy learning. By consciously working on creating an environment where students can learn with pleasure, they hope to increase the number of students who enroll.

(2) High school department.

In the university sector, schools have been opened at a pace of one every 3-4 years. In order to maintain the quality of education while increasing the number of schools, new schools will be opened only after securing teacher resources. As a result of these efforts, the number of university admissions has also dramatically increased in recent years, and it has become a top-level brand among learning centers mainly for public high school students in Kanagawa prefecture. In 2024, expansion of the Yokohama campus is planned, but the policy is to consider relocation and expansion for popular schools in the future. Also, due to the fact that real estate properties are now easier to find than before, there is a possibility of opening new campuses in 2025 and beyond, as mentioned earlier. In particular, it is expected that they will eventually expand to the Kawasaki area as there are currently no schools there.

(Written by FISCO guest analyst, Jo Sato)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

ステップ Research Memo（7）：横浜・川崎地区の生徒数シェア拡大余地は大きく今後も安定成長が続く見通し（1）

Step Research Memo (7): There is great potential for expanding the student share in the Yokohama/Kawasaki area, and stable growth is expected to continue in the future (1).

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