Career Link Research Memo (7): Aiming for operating profit of 5 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2027 due to the expansion of projects for local governments.

Fisco Japan · Jun 27 01:27

■キャリアリンク＜6070＞の今後の見通し

2. 中期経営計画

2024年5月に発表した3ヶ年の中期経営計画では、2026年3月期までの2年間をBPO関連事業の市場環境変化に対応し継続的な成長を実現するための体制構築期間と位置付けている。2024年3月期下期に取り組んだ取引地方自治体数拡大と業務領域の拡大、民間企業へのBPO取り組み強化に加えて、顧客ニーズや業種へのきめ細かい対応をコンセプトとする新規ビジネスモデルの開発や、AI等の導入によるDXを推進するなどビジネスプロセスの再構築に取り組み、顧客満足度の向上、業務改善・品質向上のための体制強化を図る方針だ。

2026年3月期までの2年間は「トライ&エラー」を繰り返しながら事業活動を推進するため、増収率は10%弱、営業利益率も7.5%前後で推移する計画だが、これら取り組みの成果が顕在化する2027年3月期には、増収率で15%、営業利益率で8.3%と売上成長の加速とともに収益性も向上する計画である。

成長戦略として、1) 長期継続が見込める案件を獲得していくことで収益基盤の強化を図る、2) 公共BPOの深化と案件多様化を推進する、3) 拠点拡充によって、取引先の地方自治体をさらに増加させる、の3点に取り組む方針だ。また、2026年3月期までの2年間で人材・インフラ両面で積極投資を行いつつ、戦略的施策（地方自治体取引数拡大、業務領域拡大、事務系及び製造系人材サービス事業における民間BPO推進、新規ビジネスモデルの開発、DXなどによる業務プロセス改革とサービス提供レベルの向上など）を実施し、2027年3月期以降の持続的成長基盤を構築していく。人的資本投資の面からは、人材のスキル・経験・知見をさらに蓄積、向上すべく、BPO業務に関する「リスキリング」を積極的に実施し、難易度が高く収益性の向上が見込める案件の受注能力を強化するとともに、顧客満足度の向上を図る。

公共BPOの深化に関しては、既に取引している地方自治体の周辺自治体（人口10万人以上など）との取引を深掘りし、取引地方自治体及び事業領域の拡大により収益基盤を拡大する。とりわけ、ITを活用した様々な住民サービスが普及し始めるなかで、こうした専門分野に対して積極的にアプローチし、長期継続的な案件を積み上げていく考えだ。イメージ的には、ITシステムとその管理運用者、関連業務の窓口スタッフなどをパッケージ化して提供するケースが想定され、同社の強みが活かせるとみている。取引先自治体数については、2024年3月期までの実績158自治体に対して2027年3月期までに230自治体を目標としている。また、同社単独だけではなく、各テーマに関するリーディングカンパニーとのアライアンス戦略なども状況に応じて行い、受注を獲得するケースも想定している。

計画の前提となるKPIとして、単年度ベースの取引先自治体数は2024年3月期の80自治体から2027年3月期は135自治体まで拡大し、また1自治体当たりの複数案件指数を1.5倍から2.0倍に増やしていく。1自治体当たりの受注単価については規模の小さい自治体や案件の比率が増えることを想定し、131百万円から93百万円に低下するが、地方自治体向け売上高については、2024年3月期の15,735百万円から2027年3月期は年率16.8%成長の25,094百万円となる見通しだ。一方、BPO事業者を含む民間企業については案件数で2024年3月期の61件から2027年3月期は80件に、平均受注単価は185百万円から155百万円に低下することを想定し、売上高は11,274百万円から年率3.1%成長の12,360百万円と堅実な成長を見込んでいる。BPO関連事業に占める地方自治体向け売上比率は2024年3月期の58.3%から2027年3月期は67.0%に上昇するが、実際には70～80%の水準になると思われる。また、民間企業向けのほうが平均受注単価が高くなっているが、大手BPO事業者からは官公庁などの大型案件を受注するケースが多いことによる。

マイナンバーカードの交付手続き業務については普及率が70%を超えたことから、2024年3月期をピークに今後は減少するが、代わりにマイナンバーの利活用分野（健康保険証、運転免許証、図書館カードの一体化などに付随する業務）の需要が立ち上がる。このため、これらを入札によりどれだけ多く受注できるかも、今後3年間の売上成長のポイントになる。そのほか、2025年3月期以降のテーマとしては子育て支援策の拡充や社会保険関連業務、法改正関連業務などがあり、これら需要を確実に取り込むことで業績を再成長軌道に乗せることは可能と弊社では見ている。社会保険関連業務では、2023年10月に奈良県大和高田市と保険医療課における連携協定を締結したことを発表した。

収益性と成長性の二軸で事業ポートフォリオを見ると、成長性かつ収益性の高いBPO関連事業は積極投資（人材投資、IT&DX投資、M&Aなど）により、持続的成長と高収益の維持・向上に取り組む。また、収益性はまだ低いものの高成長が続いている製造系人材サービス事業については、まだ成長過程にあるとの認識で、引き続き取引基盤の拡大を優先した成長を重視する方針だ。収益性、成長性が低いCRM関連事業部門や一般事務事業部門については、収益構造を改善し安定収益を確保しながら、BPO案件につなげていくフック役の機能としていく。そのほか、フィールド（営業及び営業代行）のBPOサービスは、新規顧客の開拓を進めて売上成長を目指す。また、JBSが展開しているペイロール（人事給与）のBPOサービスについては、企業のアウトソーシングニーズが旺盛なことから営業体制を強化して規模の拡大に取り組む意向だ。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　佐藤　譲）

Outlook for Career Link <6070>.

2. Global strategy

In the 3-year mid-term management plan announced in May 2024, the company positioned the next two years until the end of March 2026 as a period for building a structure to achieve continuous growth in response to market changes in the BPO-related business. In addition to expanding the number of local governments in transactions in the latter half of the 2024 fiscal year and expanding business areas, strengthening BPO initiatives for private companies, and developing new business models that focus on detailed responses to customer needs and industries, the company is working on the reconstruction of business processes, such as promoting DX through the introduction of AI, in order to improve customer satisfaction and strengthen its system for business improvement and quality improvement.

For the next two years until the end of March 2026, the company plans to promote business activities while repeating "trial and error," with a planned growth rate of just under 10% and an operating profit margin of around 7.5%. However, in the 2027 fiscal year when the results of these efforts become evident, the plan is to accelerate revenue growth and improve profitability with a growth rate of 15% and an operating profit margin of 8.3%.

As a growth strategy, the company plans to focus on 1) strengthening its revenue base by acquiring projects that can be expected to continue for a long time, 2) promoting the deepening of public BPO projects and the diversification of cases, and 3) expanding its locations to further increase the number of local governments with which it does business. In addition, while actively investing in talent and infrastructure over the next two years until the end of March 2026, the company will implement strategic measures such as expanding the number of transactions with local governments, expanding its business areas, promoting private BPOs in administrative and manufacturing personnel services businesses, developing new business models, promoting DX, and reforming business processes to improve service levels, in order to build a sustainable growth foundation after the end of the 2027 fiscal year. In terms of human capital investment, the company will proactively implement "reskilling" regarding BPO operations in order to accumulate and improve skills, experience, and knowledge of its employees, enhance its ability to receive orders for cases that are highly difficult but promising for profitability, and improve customer satisfaction.

Regarding the deepening of public BPO projects, the company plans to deepen its transactions with surrounding local governments (with populations of over 100,000, for example) of those with which it already has transactions with, and to expand its revenue base through the expansion of business areas and local governments. Specifically, the company intends to proactively approach these professional fields and accumulate long-term continuous cases as various IT-based services for residents begin to become more prevalent. The company expects that it can take advantage of its strengths by bundling IT systems, their management, and related business window staff and providing those services in package deals. The company aims to trade with 230 local government agencies for the fiscal year 2027, compared to 158 in the fiscal year 2024. The company will also form alliance strategies with leading companies in each field as necessary, not only alone. The company also considers gaining orders through such strategies.

As a KPI assumed by the plan, the number of local governments in transactions on a single-year basis will expand from 80 in the March 2024 fiscal year to 135 in the March 2027 fiscal year and the number of multiple case index per one local government will be increased from 1.5 to 2.0. The average unit price per one local government is assumed to down from 131 million yen to 93 million yen due to the expected increase in the proportion of small-scale local governments and cases, but it is expected that the local government sales revenue will increase from 15,735 million yen in the March 2024 fiscal year to 25,094 million yen, representing a 16.8% annual growth rate. In the case of private companies, including BPO operators, the company assumes that the number of cases will increase from 61 in the March 2024 fiscal year to 80 in the March 2027 fiscal year, and the average unit price per one case will decrease from 185 million yen to 155 million yen, but its sales are expected to grow steadily from 11,274 million yen to 12,360 million yen, representing a 3.1% annual growth rate. The ratio of sales to local governments that BPO-related businesses account for is expected to rise from 58.3% in the March 2024 fiscal year to 67.0% in the March 2027 fiscal year, but it is actually expected to reach a level of 70-80%. Although the average unit price per case is higher for private companies, they often receive orders for large-scale cases from government agencies and other major BPO operators.

As the distribution rate of My Number Cards has exceeded 70%, the number of procedures for issuing them will decrease after the peak of the March 2024 period, but there will be an increase in demand for the utilization of My Numbers in areas such as health insurance cards, driver's licenses, and integrated library cards, which will be bidding points for sales growth over the next three years. In addition, there are areas for expansion of child-rearing support measures, social insurance-related business, and law-related business as themes for March 2025 and beyond, and we believe that performance can be put back on a growth path by ensuring the capture of these demands. In terms of social insurance-related business, we announced that we have concluded a cooperation agreement in October 2023 with the Nara Prefecture Yamatotakada City and the insurance medical department.

When looking at the business portfolio from the two axes of profitability and growth, the BPO-related business, which is both growth-oriented and profitable, takes an approach to sustainable growth and maintaining/improving high profitability through active investments (such as talent investment, IT and DX investment, and M&A). Also, for the manufacturing-human resources service business, which is still in the growth process despite having low profitability, we prioritize growth focusing on enlargement of the transactional base with the recognition that there is still room for growth. For the CRM-related business department and general business department, which have low profitability and growth, we will function as a hook role that connects them to BPO cases while improving the revenue structure and ensuring stable earnings. In addition, BPO services in the field of sales, including sales and sales agency, aim to expand sales by developing new customers. Moreover, JBS aims to strengthen its sales structure and expand its scale by enhancing its operations for BPO services in payroll (personnel payroll), which is being deployed.

(Written by FISCO guest analyst, Jo Sato)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

キャリアリンク Research Memo（7）：地方自治体向け案件の拡大により2027年3月期に営業利益50億円目指す

Career Link Research Memo (7): Aiming for operating profit of 5 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2027 due to the expansion of projects for local governments.

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