Bank of America Analyst Highlights Fed Stress Test Opacity, Varying Bank Impacts: 'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit, Huntington Best'
Bank of America Analyst Highlights Fed Stress Test Opacity, Varying Bank Impacts: 'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit, Huntington Best'
The latest Federal Reserve stress test results have highlighted "the inherent opacity" of the Fed evaluation process, according to Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala.
根据美国银行业的分析师Ebrahim H. Poonawala称，最新的联邦储备压力测试结果凸显了“联储评估过程的内在不透明性”。
The tests, which assess the resilience of banks under severe economic scenarios, revealed a wide range of impacts on minimum capital requirements. Overall, they demonstrated that the institutions have sufficient buffers to weather the storm, albeit with higher-than-expected losses.
这些测试评估了经济困境下银行的韧性，揭示了对最低资本要求的广泛影响。总体来说，他们证明了这些机构有足够的缓冲来经受住风暴，尽管有更高于预期的损失。
Bank Of America's Key Insights From the Stress Test Results
美国银行从压力测试结果中获得的主要洞察
'Goldman Sachs Worst Hit': Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) experienced the largest year-over-year increase in its stress capital buffer (SCB), rising by 100 basis points (bps), which could poses a negative impact on return on equity (ROE) and slower share buybacks in the latter half of 2024, according to Bank of America. Poonawala maintains a Buy rating on Goldman Sachs, confident in the stock's long-term prospects.
根据美国银行，在压力缓冲区（SCB）方面，高盛（纽交所：GS）经历了最大的年度增长，上升了100个基点（bps），这可能会对ROE产生负面影响，并减缓2024年下半年的股票回购。Poonawala对高盛股票的长期前景持有买入评级。
Wells Fargo Well-Positioned: Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC) "is well positioned to handle its 90bps SCB increase. We don't expect the drag from the higher SCB to last," Poonawala stated. Bank of America anticipates Wells Fargo to achieve a 14-15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) by 2026, assuming the CET1 ratio remains above 11%.
惠尔斯法哥（纽交所：WFC）“已做好应对90个基点的SCB增长的准备。我们不希望更高的SCB拖累业绩”，Poonawala表示。美国银行预计惠尔斯法哥将在2026年实现14-15％的有形股本ROE，假设CET1比率保持在11％以上。
Citigroup Should Positively React: Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) stands out with a 30bps decline in its SCB, potentially freeing up $3 billion for share buybacks. According to Bank of America, this positive development could enhance operating leverage and investor confidence in achieving its 11-12% ROTCE target.
花旗集团（纽交所：C）的SCB下降了30个基点，可能为股票回购释放了30亿美元。据美国银行称，这一积极发展可能会增强经营杠杆和投资者信心，以实现其11-12％的ROE目标。
'Huntington Best Hit' Among Regional Banks: Banks like Huntington (NYSE:HBAN) saw a significant 70bps decline in SCB, suggesting a favorable outlook for resuming share buybacks. Conversely, Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) experienced a 60bps increase, the highest among regional banks, which might pressure its shares. M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB) and Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) also showed positive outcomes, with excess capital paving the way for potential buybacks.
像亨廷顿（纽交所：HBAN）这样的银行SCB下降了70个基点，这表明恢复股票回购的前景看好。相反，市民金融集团（纽交所：CFG）的SCB上涨了60个基点，是区域银行中最高的，这可能会对其股价施加压力。 M＆T银行（纽交所：MTB）和Truist Financial（纽交所：TFC）也呈现出积极的结果，超额资本为潜在的回购铺平了道路。
Citizens Financial Group (NYSE:CFG) shares may face pressure due to the 60bps year-over-year increase in SCB, the highest among regional banks. Conversely, KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) shares could see some relief, alleviating concerns about dividend sustainability.
市民金融集团（纽交所：CFG）的股票可能会面临压力，因为其SCB年增长60个基点，是区域银行中最高的。相反，KeyCorp（纽交所：KEY）的股票可能会获得一些缓解，消除有关股息可持续性的担忧。
Market Reactions: Regionals Outperform Large Banks
市场反应：区域银行Outperform大型银行
U.S. bank shares dipped slightly following the stress test results, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NYSE:KBWB) each down 0.4%.
美国银行ETF（NYSE：XLF）和Invesco KBW银行ETF（NYSE：KBWB）的银行股轻微下跌0.4％。
In contrast, regional banks outperformed their larger peers, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking (NYSE:KRE) gaining 0.4%.
相反，区域银行的表现超过了大型同行，SPDR S＆P区域银行（NYSE：KRE）获得了0.4％的升值。
Among large institutions, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) and Goldman Sachs were the worst performers, both down 2.1%.
在大型机构中，Capital One Financial Corp.（纽交所：COF）和高盛是最差的表现者，两者均下跌2.1％。
Within regionals, First Foundation Inc. (NYSE:FFWM) and Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (NYSE:DCOM), outperformed, up 4.9% and 3.6% respectively.
在区域中，First Foundation Inc.（纽交所：FFWM）和Dime Community Bancshares Inc.（纽交所：DCOM）表现优异，分别上涨了4.9％和3.6％。
- GDP Growth Upwardly Revised In Q1 But Consumer Spending Weakens, Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Nearly 3-Year Highs: Thursday's Economic Digest
- Q1创业板增长修正向上，但消费疲软，持续失业救济索赔达近三年高点：周四经济摘要
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。