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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Dingdang Health Technology Group Ltd. (HKG:9886)

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Dingdang Health Technology Group Ltd. (HKG:9886)

估算叮当健康科技集团有限公司(HKG:9886)的内在价值
Simply Wall St ·  06/27 19:33

Key Insights

主要见解

  • The projected fair value for Dingdang Health Technology Group is HK$1.26 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Dingdang Health Technology Group's HK$1.04 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • 基于2阶段自由现金流推算,叮当健康科技股份有限公司的预测公允价值为HK$1.26。
  • 根据预估公允价值,叮当健康科技股份有限公司的股票价格为HK$1.04,表明该公司的股票处于合理价值水平。

How far off is Dingdang Health Technology Group Ltd. (HKG:9886) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

叮当健康科技股份有限公司(HKG:9886)的内在价值目前相差多少?通过使用最新财务数据,我们将通过估算公司未来的现金流并将其折现到当下,以了解该股票是否定价合理。其中一种方法是采用折现现金流(DCF)模型。不要被术语吓到,它背后的数学实际上非常简单。

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

记住,估算公司价值的方法有很多种,DCF只是其中一种方法。如果您对这种估值方法还有一些疑问,请查看Simply Wall St分析模型。

The Calculation

计算方法

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我们使用2阶段成长模型,这意味着我们考虑公司的两个成长阶段。在初始阶段,该公司的增长率可能较高,而第二阶段通常假定具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须获得未来10年现金流的估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但在没有可用估计时,我们会将以前的自由现金流(FCF)从最后一个估计或报告的价值中推导出来。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将减缓他们的缩减速度,并且自由现金流增长的公司在此期间将看到其增长率放缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长在早期年份的减速比晚期年份更加明显。

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

DCF的核心理念是未来的一美元价值不如现在的一美元,因此我们将这些未来现金流折现至今天的价值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

10年自由现金流 (FCF) 预估值

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) -CN¥113.0m CN¥22.0m CN¥98.0m CN¥96.0m CN¥94.0m CN¥93.3m CN¥93.5m CN¥94.2m CN¥95.3m CN¥96.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -0.71% Est @ 0.15% Est @ 0.75% Est @ 1.17% Est @ 1.46%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% -CN¥106 CN¥19.3 CN¥80.8 CN¥74.2 CN¥68.1 CN¥63.4 CN¥59.5 CN¥56.2 CN¥53.4 CN¥50.8
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
杠杆自由现金流量(人民币,百万) -CN¥113.0m CN¥22.0m CN¥98.0m CN¥96.0m CN¥94.0m CN¥93.3m CN¥93.5m CN¥94.2m CN¥95.3m CN¥96.7m
创业板增长率预测来源 分析师x1 分析师x1 分析师x1 分析师x1 分析师x1 预计@-0.71% 估计为0.15% 预计为0.75% Est @ 1.17% 估计@ 1.46%
现值(单位:百万元人民币)折现率为6.7% -CN¥106 CN¥19.3 CN¥80.8 CN¥74.2 CN¥68.1 CN¥63.4 CN¥59.5 人民币56.2元 人民币53.4元 人民币50.8元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥420m

("Est" = FCF增长率估计由Simply Wall St)
10年现金流的现值(PVCF) = 人民币420百万

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.7%.

我们现在需要计算终值,它将计入此十年期限后的所有未来现金流。由于多种因素,我们使用了非常保守的增长率,它不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了十年政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们将未来的现金流以今天的价值折现,使用6.7%的权益资本成本。 (1 + g)÷(r-g)=人民币8.8亿×(1 + 2.2%)÷(6.7% - 2.2%)=人民币199亿 等于人民币199亿÷(1 + 6.7%) 等于人民币104亿

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥97m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.7%– 2.2%) = CN¥2.2b

终止价值(TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.7%– 2.2%) = 人民币97百万× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.7%– 2.2%) = 人民币22亿

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥2.2b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= CN¥1.2b

终止价值现值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= 人民币22亿÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= 人民币12亿

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥1.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$1.0, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

总价值等于未来十年现金流的总和加上贴现终止货值,即总股权价值,即为人民币1.6亿。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股票数。与当前港元1.0元的股价相比,该公司估值约为公允价值,即较当前股价折扣17%。任何计算中的假设对估值有很大影响,因此最好将其视为粗略估计,而不是精确估计到最后一分钱。

dcf
SEHK:9886 Discounted Cash Flow June 27th 2024
SEHK:9886 折现现金流 2024年6月27日

The Assumptions

假设

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dingdang Health Technology Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我们指出,折现现金流的最重要输入是折现率和实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议重新计算这些输入的影响。DCF模型也没有考虑行业的可能周期性或公司未来的资本需求,因此无法全面展示公司的潜在表现。鉴于我们将丁当健康科技集团视为潜在股东,因此使用股本成本作为折现率,而不是考虑负债的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.7%,这基于负债杠杆系数为0.800的波动。贝塔是衡量股票波动性的指标,与整个市场相比。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔中获得贝塔,在0.8和2.0之间设置了限制,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。

Next Steps:

下一步:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Dingdang Health Technology Group, we've compiled three important aspects you should further examine:

虽然公司估值很重要,但在研究一家公司时,不应仅看这个度量标准。DCF模型不是一个完美的股票估值工具。最好应用不同的情况和假设,看看它们如何影响公司的估值。如果公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股权成本或无风险利率发生急剧变化,则结果可能会有很大不同。对于丁当健康科技集团,我们编制了三个重要方面,应进行进一步检查:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Dingdang Health Technology Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 9886's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
  1. 风险:例如,我们发现了一项警告,需要在此之前投资丁当健康科技集团。
  2. 未来收益:9886的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表进行交互,深入挖掘即将到来的年份的分析师共识数字。
  3. 其他高质量选择:你喜欢一个好的多面手吗?浏览我们的高质量股票交互列表,了解还有哪些你可能错过的好东西!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St应用程序每天对SEHK上的每只股票进行折现现金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的计算,请在这里搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈?关于内容有所顾虑?直接和我们联系。或者发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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