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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519)?

Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519)?

下滑的股票和紮實的基本面:市場對貴州茅台股份有限公司(SHSE:600519)錯了嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  06/28 18:27

It is hard to get excited after looking at Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) recent performance, when its stock has declined 14% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Kweichow Moutai's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Kweichow Moutai is:

33% = CN¥81b ÷ CN¥249b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.33 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Kweichow Moutai's Earnings Growth And 33% ROE

First thing first, we like that Kweichow Moutai has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 16% the company's ROE is quite impressive. Probably as a result of this, Kweichow Moutai was able to see a decent net income growth of 14% over the last five years.

As a next step, we compared Kweichow Moutai's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 15% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:600519 Past Earnings Growth June 28th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is 600519 worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether 600519 is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Kweichow Moutai Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Kweichow Moutai has a three-year median payout ratio of 49%, which implies that it retains the remaining 51% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Besides, Kweichow Moutai has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 52%. As a result, Kweichow Moutai's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 33% for future ROE.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Kweichow Moutai's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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