Dynasty Fine Wines Group Limited (HKG:828) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 25% is also fairly reasonable.

After such a large jump in price, Dynasty Fine Wines Group may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Earnings have risen firmly for Dynasty Fine Wines Group recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Dynasty Fine Wines Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 24% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 84% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Dynasty Fine Wines Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Dynasty Fine Wines Group's P/E

The strong share price surge has got Dynasty Fine Wines Group's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Dynasty Fine Wines Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Dynasty Fine Wines Group (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Dynasty Fine Wines Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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