XXF Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2473) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
Since its price has surged higher, XXF Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
The earnings growth achieved at XXF Group Holdings over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this respectable earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For XXF Group Holdings?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, XXF Group Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 30%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 454% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's understandable that XXF Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong growth to continue and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
The strong share price surge has got XXF Group Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that XXF Group Holdings maintains its high P/E on the strength of its recent three-year growth being higher than the wider market forecast, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for XXF Group Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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