The three major U.S. stock indexes climbed and fell collectively on Friday. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq reached new highs at one point. Traders digested the latest US economic data, which showed that inflation slowed and consumer confidence was better than expected. The performance of U.S. stocks also drew a conclusion for the first half of the year.

[US Stock] At the close, the Dow fell 45.20 points, or 0.12%, to 39,118.86; the Nasdaq fell 126.08 points, or 0.71%, to 17,732.60; the S&P 500 index fell 22.39 points, or 0.41%, to 5460.48. On Friday, the Nasdaq broke through 18,000 points for the first time in history, and the S&P 500 index rose to 5,523.64 points, hitting a historical intraday high. Most large technology stocks fell, with Microsoft (MSFT.US) down 1.3%, Apple (AAPL.US) and Google (GOOG.US) down nearly 2%, Amazon (AMZN.US) down more than 2%, and Meta Platforms (META.US) down nearly 3%. Nike (NKE.US) performed worse than expected, with shares plunging 20%, the largest drop since 2001, and individual stocks such as Lululemon (LULU.US) and Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI.US) followed suit.

In the first half of 2024, driven by the AI craze, the Nasdaq rose 18.1%, the S&P 500 index rose 14.5%, and the Dow rose only 3.8%. Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, said the AI theme "dominated this year and really drove the concentration of the entire market. This made the performance very strong this year."

[European Stock Market] Major European stock indices fell, with the German DAX 30 index up 0.14%, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.19%, the French CAC 40 down 0.68%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.18%.

[Gold] Spot gold fell 0.03% to $2,326.75 per ounce, down about 0.10% in June and up 12.78% in the first half of 2024.

[Cryptos] Bitcoin was priced at $60,400, down 2.34% from Thursday's New York close. Ether was priced at $3,396.00, down 1.91% from Thursday's close. Spot bitcoin fell 10% in June and has risen about 41.60% since the first half of the year.

[Crude Oil] WTI August crude oil futures fell 0.20 dollars, or 0.24%, to 81.54 dollars/barrel, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6.27% in June and nearly 13.74% in the first half of the year. Brent August crude oil futures rose 0.02 dollars, or 0.02%, to 86.41 dollars/barrel, up more than 6.53% in June and more than 13.44% in the first half of the year.

[Metals] London metals rose, with LME Copper futures up $84 to $9,599 per tonne. LME Aluminum futures rose $32 to $2,524 per tonne. LME Zinc futures rose $8 to $2,938 per tonne. LME Tin futures rose $531 to $32,739 per tonne. In the first half of the year, LME Tin rose more than 29%, LME Copper rose more than 12%, and LME Zinc rose more than 10%.

Macro news

The Federal Reserve's voting members evaluated the latest inflation data: Monetary policy is working, and it is still too early to judge when to cut interest rates. On Friday (June 28) local time, San Francisco Fed President Daly said: "It is hard to imagine that monetary policy does not work anywhere. Our economic growth is slowing down, spending is slowing down, the labor market is slowing down, and inflation is falling, which is the role of monetary policy." Daly pointed out that the Fed will continue to make decisions based on economic data. If the rate of decline in inflation is lower than expected, decision makers will have to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. Data showed that the US May PCE price index remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, both in line with market expectations; excluding major factors such as food and energy, the US core PCE price index rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations.

Barclays strategist: Buy inflation-protected assets to prepare for Trump's re-election. Barclays strategists Michael Pond and Jonathan Hill said in a report that as the likelihood of former US President Donald Trump replacing current President Joe Biden in the November 5 election seems to increase, the market should "consider the significant risk of higher-than-target inflation rates in the coming years." This simple transaction is betting that the five-year inflation-protected bond (TIPS) will outperform regular five-year government bonds, leading to an expansion of the yield differential between the two. Barclays predicts that the break-even rate, which represents the market's expected average inflation rate over the term of the bond, will expand from the current level of around 2.25% to 2.5%.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are bearish on US stocks. Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs said that although the S&P 500 index usually performs well in the first half of July historically, reduced liquidity in August, back-to-school factors, and a pre-election correction trend may push US stocks lower. He said, 'From now until July 17, we are in the last stage of the melt-up market, and I will seek to reduce exposure after July 4.' He expects a 'pre-election correction' in the stock market as fund managers are forced to sell long positions and hedge election risks. Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan said that the S&P 500 index will fall to 4,200 points by the end of the year, a drop of about 23% from Thursday's closing price, due to unfavorable factors such as economic slowdown and profit downward revision.

Chief strategist of Bank of America: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may usher in an interest rate cut window in September. A strategist at Morgan Stanley said that as key data further shows that inflation in the United States and the eurozone is cooling down, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may take action to cut interest rates in September. Sheets said that it is understandable that central banks do not want to make commitments in advance. They do not want the outside world to think that they are too confident about inflation risks. But we think that the European Central Bank will see data showing that inflation continues to slow down in September, and the Federal Reserve can also observe that inflation continues to decline.

[Individual stock news]

Nike's stock price hit the biggest decline since 2001, disappointing full-year performance guidance. Nike's stock price fell nearly 20%, the biggest decline since 2001. The company's full-year performance outlook was below expectations, adding to concerns among investors about declining demand for its athletic shoes and clothing. Wall Street banks have lowered their ratings on the stock one after another. JPMorgan downgraded Nike to 'neutral,' and analyst Matthew Boss warned, 'We believe that in the transition period of the licensed product lifecycle, Nike's schedule to accelerate revenue growth will be extended, and the global macro background (especially the adverse factors in Greater China, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) will make the road ahead more complex.'

'Microsoft-OpenAI' combination causes EU vigilance, and the anti-monopoly official confirms the investigation has started. The European Union is preparing for further antitrust investigations into Microsoft's $13 billion investment in OpenAI. In January of this year, the European Union announced that it would review Microsoft's investment in OpenAI under the EU Merger Regulation, but both companies claimed to maintain their independence. The latest EU view is that Microsoft does not indeed move toward controlling OpenAI, so this review will not continue. But the European Union said that it is currently exploring the possibility of traditional antitrust investigations to determine whether cooperation between the two giants has harmed competition in the rapidly growing market. The European Commission revealed that it is also investigating AI-related agreements between Google and Samsung.

Major US banks announced dividend hikes after passing the Fed stress tests. After the US stock market closed, large banks such as JPMorgan and Bank of America announced dividend hikes. Just two days ago, the evaluation results of the regulatory agencies showed that all 31 banks participating in the test can maintain sufficient capital and withstand the test of the hypothetical economic recession scenario. Other banks that have raised dividends include Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also approved share buyback plans worth billions of dollars.