One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. The Hunan Valin Steel Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000932) is down 32% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -21% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 25% over the last three years. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 8.4% in the same timeframe.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the three years that the share price fell, Hunan Valin Steel's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 17% each year. In comparison the 12% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Hunan Valin Steel's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Hunan Valin Steel's TSR for the last 3 years was -21%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Hunan Valin Steel shares lost 4.8% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 16%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hunan Valin Steel better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Hunan Valin Steel is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
We will like Hunan Valin Steel better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com