Does Celanese (NYSE:CE) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Celanese (NYSE:CE) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
作为投资者,有人认为波动性而非债务是风险的最佳表现方式,但沃伦•巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性与风险远非同义词。”当您考虑一家公司的风险时,考虑其资产负债表是再自然不过的了,因为一个企业破产时债务通常都扮演了重要角色。我们可以看到Celanese Corporation(纽交所:CE) 在业务中使用了债务,但这种债务对股东来说是否构成担忧呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有在公司无法轻松偿还债务时(无论是通过筹集资本还是靠自己的现金流),债务才会成为一个真正的问题。如果情况变得非常糟糕,放贷人可能会控制业务。然而,更常见的(但仍然令人痛苦的)情况是,公司必须以低价格筹集新的股权资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的股票。当然,债务可以是企业的一种重要工具,尤其是对于资本密集型企业而言。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is Celanese's Debt?
Celanese的债务是多少呢?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Celanese had debt of US$13.3b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from US$14.6b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.48b, its net debt is less, at about US$11.8b.
下面的图片(可点击以获得更多详细信息)显示,Celanese在2024年3月底的债务为133亿美元,较去年减少了146亿美元。但是,由于它有14.8亿美元的现金储备,因此其净债务为约118亿美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240701/0-a71fbb7f1e4567a835ecaf21d6f6d5c5-0-f923c21011244d1880578bd851fdd798.png/big)
How Strong Is Celanese's Balance Sheet?
再仔细观察最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到Celanese有493亿美元的负债,要在12个月内还清,同时还有136亿美元的负债需要在12个月后偿还。抵消这些义务的是,它有14.8亿美元的现金以及12个月内到期的应收账款总价值为18.3亿美元。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的组合高出152亿美元。鉴于这个亏空实际上比公司的巨大市值147亿美元还要高,我们认为股东们确实应该像父母看着孩子第一次骑自行车一样关注Celanese的债务水平。在公司必须快速清理资产负债表的情况下,股东们似乎将遭受严重的稀释。
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Celanese had liabilities of US$4.93b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$13.6b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.48b as well as receivables valued at US$1.83b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$15.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Celanese的资产负债表有多强大呢?仔细观察最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到Celanese有493亿美元的短期负债和136亿美元的长期负债。抵消这些义务的是,它有14.8亿美元的现金以及12个月内到期的应收账款总价值为18.3亿美元。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的组合高出152亿美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of US$14.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Celanese's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
考虑到这个亏空实际上比公司的巨大市值147亿美元还要高,我们认为股东们确实应该像父母看着孩子第一次骑自行车一样关注Celanese的债务水平。在公司必须快速清理资产负债表的情况下,股东们似乎将遭受严重的稀释。Celanese股东面临着净债务/息税折旧及摊销前利润比率(6.5)很高和利息覆盖率相当低的双重打击,因为EBIT仅为利息支出的2.1倍。这意味着我们认为它负债严重。更让人不安的是,Celanese实际上让其EBIT在过去一年中下降了9.8%。如果它持续下去,偿还债务将就像在跑步机上跑步一样,大量努力但几乎没有进展。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
BJ批发俱乐部控股公司的净债务只有EBITDA的0.62倍。而其EBIT轻松覆盖其利息费用,比例为12.6倍。因此,我们对其超级保守的债务使用感到相当放心。虽然BJ批发俱乐部控股公司在EBIT方面没有取得太多进展,但至少其盈利保持稳定。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显然的切入点。但归根结底,企业未来的盈利能力将决定BJ批发俱乐部控股公司能否随着时间的推移加强资产负债表。因此,如果你要关注未来,可以查看一下这份免费的分析报告,了解分析师的盈利预测。
Celanese shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (6.5), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.1 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even more troubling is the fact that Celanese actually let its EBIT decrease by 9.8% over the last year. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Celanese's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
很明显,资产负债表是在分析债务时的重点区域。但更重要的是未来的盈利,这将决定Celanese维持健康的资产负债表能力的重要性。如果您想知道专家的看法,您可能会发现这份关于分析师盈利预测的免费报告有趣。Celanese在过去三年中录得的自由现金流价值已达到其EBIT的84%,这比我们通常预期的要强。如果有必要,这将为其还债提供更好的位置。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Celanese recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
最后,公司只能用切实的现金而非会计利润来偿还债务。因此,我们总是要查看有多少EBIT被转化为自由现金流。在过去三年中,Celanese的自由现金流价值达到其EBIT的84%,这比我们通常预期的要强。如果有必要,这将为其还债提供更好的位置。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both Celanese's interest cover and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Celanese has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Celanese (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .
坦白地说,Celanese的利息覆盖率和根据其EBITDA管理其债务的经验使我们对其债务水平感到相当不安。但好的一面是,其将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力是一个好兆头,也使我们更加乐观。总的来说,我们认为可以说Celanese有足够的债务,因此其的资产负债表中存在一些真正的风险。如果一切顺利,这将促进回报,但反过来,债务引发的永久性资本损失的风险却是很高的。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的关于债务的信息是最多的。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表以外的风险。因此,您应该了解我们发现的Celanese的3个警告信号(其中有2个有点令人担忧)。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
总的来说,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包含这些公司(所有这些公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。
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