Auto Sector Sees Strong Start But Forecasts Weaker Second Half
Auto Sector Sees Strong Start But Forecasts Weaker Second Half
RHB Investment Bank (RHB), in its 1Q24 Report Card today (2 July, Tuesday), stated that the auto sector's performance largely missed expectations, with two counters underperforming, one in line, and one surpassing projections.
RHB投资银行（RHB）在其第1Q24季报(星期二，7月2日)中指出，汽车板块的表现远远不及预期，有两个计数器表现不佳，一个与预期相符，一个则超出预期。
RHB's top pick remains Bermaz Auto (BAUTO). Despite the strong YTD-May TIV, RHB anticipates a meaningful decline in TIV for 2024, likely in 2H, due to a lack of catalysts. BAUTO's FY24 results were in line, while Sime Darby and Tan Chong Motor fell short. MBM Resources exceeded expectations due to strong Perodua sales, and BAUTO recorded another year of record earnings with solid Mazda sales volumes. BAUTO also declared a special DPS of 7 sen and a 4QFY24 DPS of 4.75 sen, bringing its FY24 DPS to 26 sen with an 86% payout ratio.
RHB的首选仍是Bermaz Auto (BAUTO)。尽管YTD-May总销售额强劲，RHB预计2024年销售总量将显著下降，可能在下半年，因为缺乏催化剂。BAUTO的FY24成果与预期相符，而Sime Darby和Tan Chong Motor则表现不佳。MBM Resources由于Perodua销售强劲而超出预期，而BAUTO的销售量保持坚挺，Mazda销售额持续高。BAUTO还宣布特别DPS为7仙，第四季度FY24 DPS为4.75仙，使FY24 DPS达到26仙，股息支出比为86%。
Major marques such as Perodua and Toyota have seen declines in their order backlogs. Perodua aims for sales of 330k units this year, similar to last year's 330,325 units. With a 20% YoY YTD volume growth, RHB believes this target is achievable and has revised its 2024 Perodua sales assumption to 330k units from 250k previously.
像Perodua和Toyota这样的大品牌订单积压量也有所下降。Perodua今年销售目标为33万辆，与去年的33万325辆相似。由于YOY销售量增长20%，RHB认为这个目标是可以实现的，并将其对Perodua销售额的2024年预测修订为33万辆，而之前的预测是25万辆。
RHB foresees a seasonally weaker 2Q24 TIV QoQ due to the shorter working quarters and public holidays. YoY, 2Q24 should post stronger sales volumes due to the low base and outstanding growth from Perodua. Post-1Q24 results, RHB revised its 2024 TIV forecast to 740k units from 625k units, mainly due to the upward revision of Perodua's forecasted volumes. Nonetheless, RHB expects a meaningful TIV decline in 2H24 as backlogs taper off and sales normalise.
由于工作季节较短和公共假期，RHB预计2Q24环比销售额将季节性较弱。由于低基数和Perodua的出色增长，2Q24的YOY销售额应该更高。在第1Q24发布成果后，RHB将2024年销售总量预测修订为74万辆，而之前的预测是62.5万辆，主要是由于Perodua的销售量上行预期被上调。尽管如此，RHB预计在2H24销售量回归正常化时，销售总量将显着下降。
RHB maintains a NEUTRAL call on the sector, expecting a weaker TIV performance as sales volumes normalise in 2H24. BAUTO remains RHB's top pick due to its approximately 9% dividend yield and resilient car sales compared to other marques.
RHB对该板块保持中立看法，预计下半年销售量回归正常化，整体表现将较弱。由于其约9%的股息收益率及相对于其他品牌的抗跌性，BAUTO仍是RHB的首要选择。