It's not a stretch to say that Spire Inc.'s (NYSE:SR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Spire as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping it doesn't keep underperforming if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.
How Is Spire's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Spire's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 12% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 32% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.3% per annum as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Spire's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Bottom Line On Spire's P/E
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Spire currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Spire is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is concerning.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Spire, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com