On the eve of Independence Day in the United States, several weak economic data were released, adding signs of slow economic growth in the United States and fueling expectations of interest rate cuts. For example, the US June ISM non-manufacturing index was 48.8, significantly below the expected 52.6, and the contraction rate was the fastest in four years, reversing the situation of May data rebounding to a nine-month high. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth between 1 billion to 30 billion yuan was respectively 40.1, 128.8 and 0.6 million yuan.

At the same time, the increase in the number of initial jobless claims and the unexpected ADP employment data show a cooling labor market. In the week of June 29th, the first application for unemployment benefits in the United States rose to 238,000, a new high since January this year; ADP's new employment in June 'Lil non-farm' added 150,000 people, significantly lower than the expected 165,000 people, the lowest level in four months.

Investors have optimistic expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has increased from 63% to 66.5%. Investors still expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least once this year. After the data was released, US bond yields and the US dollar both fell, while gold rose and technology stocks rose strongly, driving the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to close at new highs. In addition, due to a sharp decrease in US EIA crude oil inventories by more than 12 million barrels, and the long-standing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip maintained the risk premium of crude oil futures, international oil prices closed up by over 1%.

Since Thursday is Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will be closed all day on Thursday, and it will close three hours early on Wednesday and close at 1:00 am Beijing time.

The later-released minutes of the Fed meeting showed that officials had different opinions on how long high interest rates should last at the June policy meeting. Fed officials said they were waiting for more evidence of inflation cooling. Although 'some' officials emphasized the need for patience, 'part' of the participants specifically pointed out that further weakness in the job market could lead to a greater increase in the unemployment rate.

Internationally, weak demand has weakened the expansion momentum of the euro zone economy. The final value of the euro area comprehensive PMI in June slightly exceeded expectations at 50.9, but fell to a three-month low. At the same time, the euro zone's PPI in May also continued to decline. ECB Governor Stournaras stated that recent data slightly strengthened the possibility of continuing to lower interest rates, and it seems reasonable to lower interest rates twice this year. Even after two more interest rate cuts, the central bank's interest rates will still be at restrictive levels. The 'inflation for services' in (the euro area) should not be overinterpreted.

Looking ahead, the UK will hold a general election on Thursday and will release its non-farm employment data on Friday. Economists expect that non-farm employment, including both private and public sectors, will increase by 190,000 people, a decrease from the previous month.

S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs again, Tesla rose 6.54%, Nvidia rose 4.57%, Google, Apple, and Microsoft hit new highs together, and European stocks rose across the board.

On Wednesday, July 3rd, the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, accelerated its upward trend after a low opening, and closed at the daily high. The S&P 500, which opened low, rose sharply throughout the day, and refreshed the daily high at the end; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which gathers blue-chip stocks, although opened high up 27 points, expanded its decline during the trading day and refreshed the daily low. It rebounded slightly near the end of the trading day and only slightly closed down. Russell's small-cap stock index rose 0.76% and then gave up most of its gains, only slightly up, and the Nasdaq rose the most among the major indexes.

As of the close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 have all hit record highs again. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit new highs for the 33rd and 22nd times this year, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.06%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index escaped from a three-week low:

The S&P 500 rose 28 points, up 0.51%, to 5537.02, hitting a record high for two consecutive days. The Dow Jones fell 23.85 points, down 0.06%, to 39,308.00 points. The Nasdaq rose 159.54 points, or 0.88%, to 18,188.30 points, hitting a record high for three consecutive days.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.87%, hitting a new closing high for two consecutive days; the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the components of the Nasdaq 100 technology industry, rose by about 1.34% to set a new closing high; the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 0.14%; the 'panic index' VIX rose 0.5% to 12.09.

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index, the information technology/technology sector closed up 1.48%, breaking the previous record high set on June 20; the raw materials sector rose more than 0.8%, the energy sector rose more than 0.4%, the consumer discretionary sector rose more than 0.3%, the telecommunications sector rose 0.2%, and the health care sector fell more than 0.7%.

12 stocks in the S&P 500 index hit 52-week highs, while 8 hit all-time highs, including Intercontinental Exchange, JPMorgan, Eli Lilly, Apple, Fair Isaac, Microsoft, and Iron Mountain.

Goldman Sachs released a report on Wednesday, stating that recent annual adjustments have increased the weight of the healthcare and financial industries in small-cap stocks, while reducing the weight of the technology industry. The Russell 2000 Index is now more dependent on the financial industry, especially regional banks, which puts pressure on small cap stock indices, while large cap stock indices continue to hit record highs.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for Carson Group, pointed out that July 3rd is historically the most productive day of the summer, and since 1950, the average daily increase for the S&P 500 Index on July 3rd is 0.31%.

Author Jim Paulsen of the Paulsen Perspectives newsletter said that this is the only bull market in post-war history under the continued tightening of Fed policy. Although the S&P 500 and other indices have hit new highs, this bull market is actually "narrow" because only a few stocks have benefited from the Fed's rate hike policy, which is uncommon in the history of bull markets. If the Fed decides to cut rates, I think the stock market will face more stimulus and we may usher in a new bull market. After strong performance in the first half of 2024, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend.

However, Wall Street veteran Richard Bernstein believes that although current U.S. stocks seem to be full of bubbles, the rise is highly concentrated in large-cap stocks, but considering that current corporate profits are accelerating and the banking system is performing well, it is unlikely to trigger another economic crisis. A financial storm may be brewing and the Fed seems to have not learned from history.

Most of the popular technology stocks rose. Tesla led the seven sisters of the US stock market, rising 6.54% to $246.39, rising for the seventh consecutive trading day, the longest consecutive rise in a year, and up nearly 34.95% since the close of June 24th. In addition, Apple rose 0.58%, Microsoft rose 0.32%, Google A rose 0.31%, "metaverse" Meta rose 0.09%, and Amazon fell 1.21%.

Chip stocks rebounded together. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.92%, and the industry ETF SOXX rose 1.67%. Nvidia rose 4.57%, and the double-long ETF of Nvidia rose 8.99%.

In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose 3.86% to a historic high, ARM rose 2.92%, Applied Materials rose 1.02%, Kla Corp rose 1.69%, Broadcom rose 4.33%, Micron Technology rose 3.19%, Intel rose 0.51%, Qualcomm rose 1.82%, and AMD fell 0.25%.

Most of the AI concept stocks went up. BigBear.ai rose 2.07%, C3.ai rose 1.67%, Supermicro Computer rose 1.17%, Oracle rose 0.77%, Snowflake rose 0.66%, CrowdStrike rose 0.55%, Palantir rose 0.08%, while SoundHound.ai fell 0.25% and Dell fell 0.56%.

Chinese concept stocks outperformed the main US stock market. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) rose by more than 3%, the KraneShares China Technology ETF (KQQQ) rose by nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose by 3.3% and rose above 6,000 points to a two-week high.

Among the popular stocks, new car-making forces rose sharply, with JiKe (XK) rising 9.28%, Xpeng rising 9.04%, NIO rising 7.51%, and Li Auto rising 6.53%. DouYu rose by more than 42%, leading the way, while Huya and Zhihu rose by more than 10%, and Baidu rose by 3.67%, JD.com rose by 2.99%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) rose by 2.89%, PDD Holdings rose by 2.58%, Alibaba rose by 2.57%, and NetEase rose by 2.09%. The Board of Directors of Douyu announced the issuance of special stock dividends, about US$9.76 per share.

On the news front:

Novo Nordisk: Novo Nordisk was hit hard by reports of serious eye diseases caused by weight-loss drugs, falling more than 4.8% at its deepest point. On the other hand, with the United States announcing its goal of lowering the price of weight-loss drugs, Novo Nordisk ADR and other biotech stocks have fallen, leading to poor performance in the healthcare industry.

Tesla: On Wednesday night, the official Weibo account of Tesla announced that the second-generation humanoid robot Optimus will make its debut at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai from July 4th to 7th, 'witnessing the re-evolution of humanoid robots'. Wedbush raised its target stock price to $300 from $275, and Bank of America raised its target price to $260.

Amazon: Reports said that Amazon has decided to discontinue its safety robot Astro for Business and shift its focus to home robotics products.

Nvidia: According to the data disclosed in the filings submitted to the regulators, Huang Renxun sold a total of 1.3 million shares of Nvidia in June, and the media estimates that the total value of these stocks is close to $169 million, setting a record for his personal monthly stock sale.

Li Auto Inc: Reports said that Li Auto launched a zero down payment car purchase plan to boost sales. In addition, China Passenger Car Association data showed that 864,000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in the Chinese market from June 1st to 30th, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 6%.

Retail investors' enthusiasm for stocks remains high. Koss Corp surged by 143.81%, GameStop rose by 1.63%, Blackberry rose by 1.63%, while AMC Entertainment fell by 3.45%.

Investors are preparing for two national parliamentary elections. UK election will be held on Thursday and French parliamentary election second-round voting will be held on Sunday. European stocks rose on Wednesday:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.74%, while the eurozone STOXX 50 index rose by 1.21%.

The German DAX 30 index rose by 1.16%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 1.24%, Italys FTSE MIB index rose by 1.09%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.61%, and Spains IBEX 35 index rose by 1.32%.

Weak economy pushed down US bond yields, with 5- to 10-year US Treasury yields falling more than 10 basis points intra-day.

ISM data for the service industry boosted expectations for the Fed's rate cut. In late trading, the two-year US Treasury yields sensitive to interest rates fell 2.9 basis points to 4.7059%; the US 10-year bond yields fell 7.29 basis points to 4.3587%.

The two-year US Treasury yields, more sensitive to monetary policy, fell the most, down 7 basis points to 4.67%, and then rose back above the 4.70% mark to a nearly three-week low. The 10-year bond yields fell the most by 10 basis points to 4.33%, further away from the one-month high since May 31. The 5-year and 7-year US Treasury yields both fell 10 basis points at one point, and the 30-year long bond yields fell more than 9 basis points.

Earlier this week, long-term US bond yields surged by double digits amid an increased probability that Trump would win the US presidential election.

The benchmark 10-year German bond yields fell by 1.7 basis points to 2.585% at the close, trading between 2.642%-2.567% intraday. The two-year German bond yields rose by 1.3 basis point to 2.918%, trading between 2.894%-2.952% intraday.

French 10-year bond yields fell by 6.7 basis points, Italian 10-year bond yields fell by 7.3 basis points, Spain 10-year bond yields fell by 6.5 basis points, and Greek 10-year bond yields fell by 6.9 basis points. UK 10-year bond yields fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.172%.

Expectations for a rate cut increased, causing the US dollar to fall more than 0.3%, and the Japanese yen almost fell to 162.

The US dollar index measuring against six major currencies fell by 0.35% to 105.347 points, and there was a significant drop in the US ISM non-manufacturing data, setting a new daily low of 105.049 points, and there was no significant fluctuation after the FOMC meeting minutes were released.

The Bloomberg US dollar index fell by 0.25% to 1265.88 points, trading between 1270.52-1262.35 points intraday.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar reported 7.3032 yuan, up 38 points from the New York session last Tuesday, hitting a daily low with the release of US ISM non-manufacturing data.

The US dollar rose 0.16% against the Japanese yen to 161.71, the euro rose 0.40% against the US dollar, the British pound rose 0.55% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.24% against the Swiss franc.

Most mainstream cryptos fell. The market cap leader Bitcoin fell 3.70%, reporting $59,885.00. The second largest Ethereum fell 4.35%, reporting $3,277.00.

The sharp drop in US crude oil and gasoline inventories indicates an increase in oil demand, and international oil prices rose nearly 1.3%.

WTI August crude oil futures rose $1.07, up over 1.29%, reporting $83.88 per barrel. Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.10, up over 1.27%, reporting $87.34 per barrel.

When US stocks hit a new low in early trading, US oil dropped as low as $82.46, down 0.35 or 0.42%, and Brent oil hit the deepest drop of 0.35 or 0.4% to $85.89. Later it rapidly rose to a new high, US oil rose to a maximum of $83.93, up 1.12 or 1.35%, and Brent crude rose to $87.39, up 1.15 or 1.33%.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil inventory fell by 12.16 million barrels last week, analysts expected a decrease of 411,290 barrels, and the previous value increased by 3.591 million barrels. US crude oil inventories fell sharply by more than 12 million barrels last week, the lowest since July 2023. In addition, gasoline inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels. Also, aviation fuel exports hit a seasonal historical high, and oil exports rebounded to 4.4 million barrels per day.

According to the latest data from AAA, as the Independence Day holiday approaches, gasoline prices have slightly increased, currently averaging $3.51 per gallon, an increase of 2 cents from last week. At the same time, AAA predicts that a record 60 million Americans will choose to drive during this long weekend to enjoy the holiday.

Analysis indicates that the significant drop in US inventories means that oil demand will rise. Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler, pointed out: 'Although refining activities have increased, unexpected reductions in gasoline and distillate stocks reflect an actual increase in demand for the two. Especially gasoline, with the approaching Independence Day holiday, gas stations have increased their reserves, leading to a surge in gasoline demand.'

In addition, the impact of hurricanes on oil prices is smaller than the sharp drop in oil inventories. The latest forecast shows that after the hurricane is unlikely to have a significant impact on offshore oil production, traders' concerns about supply are weakening. Helima Croft, global commodity strategy leader at RBC Capital Markets, noted that as the United States' dependence on offshore oil production declines, the impact of hurricanes on the oil market becomes less pronounced.

US August natural gas futures fell by about 0.70%, reporting $2.4180 per million British thermal units. US August gasoline futures reported $2.6013 per gallon and US August heating oil futures reported $2.6343 per gallon.

The latest data released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that US natural gas inventories increased by 32 billion cubic feet, exceeding the market's expected 29 billion cubic feet. Although current natural gas inventories are 18.8% higher than the seasonal average level, due to the increase in production and market oversupply, natural gas prices are still close to the low point of the past seven weeks.

Benefiting from the warming of Fed's rate cut expectations in September, gold prices climbed more than 1%, approaching a two-week high, and London copper rose more than 2%, rising for four consecutive days.

COMEX August gold futures rose about 1.42% to $2,366.6 per ounce at the close, and COMEX July silver futures rose about 3.88% to $30.81 per ounce.

Spot gold continued to rise, US stocks hit a new high in early trading, rising more than 1.5% or $35, breaking through the integer level of $2,360. Spot silver rose nearly 3.9%, breaking through the integer level of 30.5.

New York independent metals trader Tai Wong said: 'Driven by ADP employment data and jobless claims, precious and base metals markets are rising across the board, and these data further confirm the trend of economic slowdown, which is likely to lead to the first rate cut in September. Many investors are trying to gain an advantage before the weak employment report is released on Friday.'

In other precious metals, platinum prices rose 1.8% and palladium prices rose 2.7%.

The weakening of the US dollar contributed to the strength of London's industrial base metals:

Economic indicator 'Dr. Copper' rose by 196 US dollars, an increase of more than 2.02%, to 9,868 US dollars per ton. London aluminum rose by 26 US dollars, an increase of 1.03%. London zinc rose by 68 US dollars, an increase of about 2.33%. London lead rose by 20 US dollars to 2,222 US dollars per ton. London nickel rose by 319 US dollars, an increase of more than 1.87%. London tin rose by 441 US dollars, an increase of about 1.34%.