According to the Futu Smart News APP, the three major U.S. indices had mixed performances on the eve of Independence Day, with the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq hitting new historical highs. The United States announced several weak economic data, driving the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing the 5-10 year U.S. Treasury yields to fall more than 10 basis points during the day. The US stock market will be closed on July 4th Independence Day.

At the close, Dow Jones closed down 23.85 points, a decrease of 0.06%, to 39308.00 points; Nasdag rose 159.54 points, an increase of 0.88%, to 18188.30 points; S&P 500 Index rose 28.01 points, an increase of 0.51%, to 5537.02 points. During the trading day, the S&P 500 Index hit a high of 5539.27 points and Nasdag hit a high of 18188.30 points, both hitting historical intraday highs. Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 6.54% and rose for the seventh consecutive day.

Europe's major stock indexes rose, with Germany's DAX30 Index up more than 1%, the UK's FTSE 100 Index up 0.61%, France's CAC40 Index up more than 1%, and Europe's Stoxx50 Index up more than 1.2%.

Asia Pacific stock markets rose, with the Nikkei 225 Index up more than 1%, the Jakarta Composite Index up 0.49%, the Vietnam VN30 Index up 0.73%, and the Straits Times Index in Singapore up 1.4%.

COMEX gold futures rose 1.37%, closing at $2365.4 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 3.87%, closing at $30.805 per ounce.

Bitcoin fell more than 3% to $60056.9 per coin; Ether fell more than 3.8% to $3,284.96 per coin.

WTI August crude oil futures rose $1.07, up more than 1.29%, to $83.88 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.10, up more than 1.27%, to $87.34 per barrel.

London metals were mixed, with LME copper up 0.4%, LME aluminum up 0.06%; LME nickel fell more than 1.7%, LME zinc fell 0.29%.

Macro news

ADP added only 150,000 jobs in June. ADP, known as "Little Non-Farm", has seen job growth decline for the third consecutive month, bringing good news to the Federal Reserve. A report released by ADP Research Institute shows that ADP added 150,000 jobs in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000 and a slight decrease from the previous month's 152,000. This is the third consecutive month of declining employment for ADP, and the lowest level in four months. Specifically, the service industry once again became the industry with the most new jobs, with the service industry adding 136,000 new jobs in June, far more than the 14,000 new jobs added in the manufacturing industry. At the same time, the wages of retained workers rose 4.9% year-on-year in June, the slowest growth rate since August 2021. The wage growth of employees switching jobs also slowed, to 7.7%.

The U.S. service industry contracted at the fastest pace in four years. The June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 48.8, a new low since May 2020, below the expected 52.5. Due to the sharp contraction in commercial activity and orders, the U.S. service industry experienced its fastest rate of contraction in four years in June. This data showed a sudden and significant reversal compared to last month, when this index hit a nine-month high. The deterioration in the June service index further demonstrates that the economy is showing signs of losing momentum. The service industry is the largest component of the U.S. economy. Coupled with the ISM Manufacturing Index, which has shrunk for the third consecutive month this week, the organization's survey of service providers shows that demand is under greater pressure due to high borrowing costs, cooling corporate investment, and uneven consumer spending. At the same time, an indicator that measures the prices paid by service providers for raw materials has fallen to a three-month low, indicating that inflation is gradually cooling down. The price paid index fell from 58.1 to 56.3, while the employment index fell from 47.1 to 46.1.

FOMC Minutes: The Federal Reserve is waiting for "more information" to gain confidence in rate cuts. The minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that officials believed that lowering borrowing costs was inappropriate until "they have more information to make them more confident" that inflation is headed for the 2% target. "The vast majority" of Fed officials evaluated that economic growth "seems to be gradually cooling, with most participants stating that they believed the current policy stance is restrictive." Officials said that the monthly increase in the core personal consumption expenditure price index was small, indicating that inflation had made clear progress and was supported by May CPI data.

Fed Chair Powell will attend hearings of the US Senate and House of Representatives on July 9-10. Fed Chair Powell will testify before the Senate banking committee and House financial services committee next week on Capitol Hill. Powell is expected to testify on monetary policy to a Senate panel on Tuesday, July 9 at 10 am (10 pm Beijing time), with the House committee to hear Powell's remarks at 10 am (10 pm Beijing time) on Wednesday, July 10. According to estimates by Fed officials, the central bank is likely to cut interest rates sometime this year and is also studying major reforms to bank capital rules. Lawmakers may pressure Powell on these two issues next week.

The 30-year mortgage rate in the United States has risen for the first time in five weeks. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.95%, up from 6.86% last week, according to a statement by the Housing Market. After falling for four consecutive weeks, the rise in mortgage rates has weakened the purchasing power of homebuyers, who have already struggled to find ideal and affordable properties. Builders have been working hard to fill the inventory gap, but recent pressures have made it more difficult for them. Some properties, especially those that are not immediately available for occupancy, have stayed on the market longer, leading to price cuts. Sam Khater, chief economist at Housing Market, said in a statement: "We still expect rates to moderately decline in the second half of this year, and with increased inventory, price growth should slow, which is good news for interested homebuyers."

"Fed Whisperer": Fed officials suggest they are in no rush to cut rates. "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said last month's meeting saw some officials call for close attention to signs of labor market fatigue that could be faster than expected due to rising inflation, resulting in a lack of confidence in Fed officials' easing bias. According to the minutes of the June Fed meeting, "Several participants suggested that monetary policy should be prepared to respond to unexpected weak economic developments." Officials also cited several economic developments, including slowing wage growth, declining corporate pricing power, and increased consumer sensitivity to rising prices, to support their expectation of continued downward pressure on inflation over the next year. The minutes of the meeting indicated that officials were generally satisfied with their wait-and-see stance on interest rate changes and highlighted a range of views that could prompt the Fed to raise or lower interest rates. Combined with recent public remarks by Fed officials, the minutes suggest that they are unlikely to cut rates at the meeting later this month.

Piper Sandler abandons S&P 500 target. Piper Sandler's macro research team will no longer publish end-of-year forecasts for the S&P 500, calling it an inefficient way to communicate with clients. Chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz believes that as 37% of the index is made up of the 10 largest stocks, predicting the absolute performance of the index has become meaningless. "I don't think there's much value in raising the target again because it no longer explains the stock market, which was its original intent," he said. Setting target prices for individual stocks makes sense, but it no longer makes sense for indexes today." For most of 2023,Kantrowitz maintained a bearish view of the US stock market, but reversed his opinion at the end of the year. In February of this year, he again raised his target for the S&P 500 to 5250 points.

[Individual stock news]

Amazon's (AMZN.O) security robot for small and medium-sized enterprises "Astro for Business" has been discontinued after only seven months. In an email sent to customers and employees on Wednesday, Amazon said the reason for shelving Astro for Business was simple: Amazon wants to focus on its home version of Astro. "We are fully committed to our vision of bringing world-class consumer robotics solutions into the home," a Amazon spokesperson said in a statement. "To accelerate our progress and ongoing research that makes Astro the best home robot, we're winding down support for Astro for Business. We're excited about the home experience we've invented for Astro and look forward to sharing more in the future."

Google's (GOOG.US,GOOGL.US) carbon emissions have increased by nearly 50% in the past five years due to the use of a large number of artificial intelligence applications. According to Google's latest environmental report released on July 2, its carbon dioxide emissions for 2023 were 14.3 million tons, up 13% year-on-year and 48% higher than in 2019, thanks to the increase in data center energy consumption and supply chain emissions. In fact, Google is not the only technology company whose carbon emissions have increased due to demand for artificial intelligence. In May of this year, Microsoft admitted that its carbon emissions had risen by 30% since 2020.

JPMorgan's (JPM.US) chief market strategist, Kolanovic, is leaving after repeatedly making misguided stock calls. JPMorgan's chief market strategist and global research co-head, Marko Kolanovic, is leaving the company. Before that, Kolanovic made wrong stock calls for two consecutive years. He remained bullish for most of 2022 when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 19%, with Wall Street strategists lowering their expectations for the stock market. He later turned bearish when the market was hitting a bottom, ultimately missing out on the index's increase of 24% last year and 14% in the first half of this year. The JPMorgan strategy team led by Kolanovic is one of Wall Street's few continuing bearish strategists on U.S. stocks, while companies such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America have steadily raised their predictions. Among the banks tracked by Bloomberg, JPMorgan has the lowest target price for the S&P 500 at 4,200 points in 2024, with the index currently above 5,500 points.

Bank review:

Bank of America: Raised Tesla's (TSLA.US) target price from $220 to $260.