Northeast Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a 'buy' rating on Yum China (09987) and expects a net income attributable to mothers of USD 870 million/USD 990 million/USD 1.15 billion from 2024 to 2026. The company is a long-standing benchmark for localized Western-style fast food dining, and competition with new brands like Tastin will gradually weaken. This round is more restricted by the weak macro consumer power, and the company's basic plate/moat/model texture remains extremely stable. We look forward to the performance catalyst brought by the recovery of consumption.
The bank believes that Tasting's management took the initiative to cut prices and cut Hua Lai Shi's market share, and the future positioning/competitive relationship with KFC will gradually weaken. KFC's store model is superior to direct competitor McDonald's, and its advantages gradually expand as the level sinks. In terms of the quality of a single-store model, Tasting≈KFC>McDonald's>Hua Lai Shi, KFC relies on its high threshold, high profitability, and fast payback quality model to build a strong moat. From 2023Q4 to now, KFC/McDonald's/Burger King store efficiency has dropped significantly, Tasting/Dicos has slightly weakened, and Hua Lai Shi has accelerated its upward trend, showing a significant trend of consumption downgrading, and all brands are affected, indicating that KFC's current store efficiency is under more pressure from changes in the consumption environment.