Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc. (SHSE:688561) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Qi An Xin Technology Group Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Qi An Xin Technology Group had CN¥1.58b of debt, up from CN¥633.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥920.9m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥658.7m.
A Look At Qi An Xin Technology Group's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Qi An Xin Technology Group had liabilities of CN¥4.45b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥654.6m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥920.9m as well as receivables valued at CN¥7.06b due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥2.87b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
It's good to see that Qi An Xin Technology Group has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While we wouldn't worry about Qi An Xin Technology Group's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.5 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. One redeeming factor for Qi An Xin Technology Group is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of CN¥48m, over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Qi An Xin Technology Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, Qi An Xin Technology Group burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
While Qi An Xin Technology Group's interest cover makes us cautious about it, its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow is no better. At least its level of total liabilities gives us reason to be optimistic. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Qi An Xin Technology Group's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Qi An Xin Technology Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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