Zhì tōng cǎi jīng APP learned that CMB International released a research report stating that in June, the leading indicators of the six major new energy auto brands showed differentiation with Nio-SW (09866) and BYD Company (01211) seeing increases in their main indicators compared to the previous month, while Tesla and Li Auto saw decreases. Xpeng and Aiways' leading indicators remained weak. The bank expects overall new energy auto retail sales in July to decline month-on-month. In July, the bank believes that investors should pay attention to whether Nio and BYD's new orders can continue to grow month-on-month, especially Nio's order conversion rate. In addition, the launch of Mona M03 is also expected to be a short-term catalyst for Xpeng's stock price.
According to the report, the total number of single-store leads for the six major brands decreased by 1% month-on-month in June. Among them, Li Auto's lead volume saw the largest decline (-11%), mainly due to the end of the L6 new model promotion. Tesla's single-store lead volume also decreased by 4% month-on-month in June, which may explain why Tesla added interest-free policies on July 1. Although Nio's terminal discounts decreased compared to May, its single-store lead volume increased by 2% month-on-month, better than the bank's expectations. BYD's lead volume increased by 7% month-on-month, the strongest performance among the six major brands. The total single-store customer traffic for the six major brands in June decreased by 7% month-on-month. Among them, Li Auto's single-store customer traffic saw the largest decline, down 18% month-on-month, while Tesla and Xpeng saw decreases of 7-8%. Although the lead volumes of Nio and Aiways increased month-on-month last month, their single-store customer traffic decreased by 4% and 9% month-on-month, respectively, due to their lower conversion rate. BYD was the only brand to achieve a month-on-month increase in single-store customer traffic last month, mainly due to the launch of Qin L and Harbor Seal 06 PHEV.
In terms of new orders, the total number of single-store new orders for the six major brands increased by 2% month-on-month in June, with Nio's single-store new order volume seeing an 11% increase month-on-month in June, stronger than expected, mainly due to the improvement in the conversion rate. BYD's single-store new order volume increased by 10% month-on-month in June, indicating stronger sales in July. Li Auto's single-store new order volume decreased by 10% month-on-month in June, slightly lower than the bank's expectations. The bank believes that in order to achieve its full-year sales target, Li Auto may need to launch a new round of price cuts in 3Q24.