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  • Momentum for Biden to Step Aside Accelerating, Analyst Fordham Says

Momentum for Biden to Step Aside Accelerating, Analyst Fordham Says

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Bloomberg Jul 5, 2024 00:28 · 13.3k Views

The red-hot Washington debate over whether President Joe Biden will scrap his run for re-election is spilling into Wall Street. We discuss the chances of Biden pulling out of the race, and whether Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear alternative with Geopolitical Strategist & Founder of Fordham Global Foresight, Tina Fordham and Bloomberg Opinion's John Authers.

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Transcript

  • 00:00 Does Joe Biden survive this?
  • 00:02 The concern is that no matter how much Tina, the White House says that, look, he's not going to stand down, he stays on.
  • 00:08 I feel like the narrative
  • 00:09 has now
  • 00:10 run.
  • 00:11 The momentum
  • 00:13 behind the idea that that Biden should step down to make way for another candidate is
  • 00:18 accelerating.
  • 00:19 And it's accelerating fast and faster than the White House
  • 00:23 can control the narrative.
  • 00:24 I mean, I think the corollary here is to think about crisis comes
  • 00:28 for a company.
  • 00:29 You can't spin this.
  • 00:31 It isn't a moment.
  • 00:33 Aging is a process which is not reversible
  • 00:36 as far as anybody knows.
  • 00:39 They've got a couple of
  • 00:40 interviews coming up.
  • 00:41 We had the meeting with Governor's yesterday where Vice President Harris joined,
  • 00:46 and then tomorrow, the interview with George Stephanopoulos
  • 00:50 is going to be very closely watched.
  • 00:52 But I keep seeing people in the Democrat camp talking about Biden needs to step up, he needs to reassure.
  • 00:57 I sort of think that ship has sailed.
  • 00:59 Yeah.
  • 01:00 Do you agree, John?
  • 01:01 Yes.
  • 01:02 He can't get younger.
  • 01:04 It's that that's the problem.
  • 01:06 Sometimes when politicians get into
  • 01:08 really serious trouble, really lose the narrative in the way that Biden has in the last week, there's something they can do about it.
  • 01:16 I don't think there is in the case of Joe Biden, even if he is
  • 01:20 much better, makes a better case for himself the next couple of times he appears in
  • 01:23 public.
  • 01:24 Again, all of us who are of voting age
  • 01:27 know what's aging is like
  • 01:30 from
  • 01:31 people we know, if not for ourselves.
  • 01:33 It involves bad days and good days.
  • 01:36 The problem is if you are capable of having as bad a day as he had in the debate,
  • 01:40 you probably shouldn't be the president for the next five years.
  • 01:44 I don't think that's amountable.
  • 01:45 And I think eventually, yes, he one way or another, he probably is going to stand down.
  • 01:49 So, John, people in in the Democrat Party say, look, he, he, you know, he's the only one that can win against Trump.
  • 01:54 I don't know whether that's changed.
  • 01:55 And they've also said it's almost impossible to to have someone else running.
  • 01:59 Is that also not true?
  • 02:01 I don't think that's true.
  • 02:02 I mean, the fact that, oh, you redress, I don't
  • 02:05 there's, there are norms, there are customs, there are things that never happened before.
  • 02:10 I think it's time to throw out the playbook.
  • 02:13 Yeah.
  • 02:13 I think one of the key points to to address
  • 02:16 Francine's point there is
  • 02:18 that
  • 02:19 one of the critical things about the polls at the moment is that they're showing other candidates doing better against Trump
  • 02:24 than Biden does,
  • 02:26 including.
  • 02:27 And This is why there is such a bubble of interest in Kamala Harris.
  • 02:29 Again, Kamala Harris is actually outperforming some of the more interesting governors who people are talking about as candidates.
  • 02:36 That's a very serious issue, which knocks one of the other big supports for Biden's candidates.
  • 02:41 It's also important because it makes it easier for the hardcore Team Biden
  • 02:46 to contemplate.
  • 02:47 Yes, if Kamala stays on the ticket,
  • 02:50 right?
  • 02:51 A Cabinet clean slate, I think is inconceivable, but it changes the dynamics.
  • 02:55 Tina, first of all, who convinces Joe Biden that he needs to step down?
  • 02:58 Only his wife.
  • 02:59 I keep on hearing this for, for many parts,
  • 03:02 I, I feel a little sorry for Jill Biden and that she's sort of being
  • 03:05 turned into Lady Macbeth or Yoko Ono or somebody.
  • 03:08 In terms of the, the, the,
  • 03:09 the, the, the overriding narrative.
  • 03:11 She's obviously most important.
  • 03:13 If you have a bunch of senators.
  • 03:15 He was a lion of the Senate, spent however many decades in the Senate.
  • 03:18 Go to him and point out there's a fascinating piece in by Nate Silver in today's New York Times.
  • 03:23 There are five swing states where there there is a defending Democratic senator running
  • 03:29 every.
  • 03:30 They've been something like 45 polls and the senator candidate has done better than Biden
  • 03:36 in every single one of those polls.
  • 03:38 He is
  • 03:39 plainly, blatantly running behind
  • 03:42 another Democrat
  • 03:44 in those states.
  • 03:45 I think that is the kind of thing,
  • 03:47 given how much he cares about the Senate, that might
  • 03:49 sway him.
  • 03:50 But I,
  • 03:51 Democrats have to decide if they want to win.
  • 03:53 I, I think, I mean, I'm, I'm maybe oversimplifying, but who's Democrats?
  • 03:58 There's not one person that says, Mr.
  • 03:59 President, now's, now's time.
  • 04:01 No, but there's evidence.
  • 04:02 And the more we see these kinds of simulations with different tickets,
  • 04:07 I think that's going to be persuasive.
  • 04:09 I mean, I was told by
  • 04:11 one of my clients that this was heretical stance, yeah, to take.
  • 04:15 But I think it's just what the
  • 04:16 the race needs.
  • 04:18 So.
  • 04:18 So what happens next?
  • 04:19 I mean, again, there's conventions in in case this happens, but we've never tested it.
  • 04:23 Signposts.
  • 04:24 Yes,
  • 04:24 always look at the signposts.
  • 04:26 I'm I'm highlighting the fact that the NATO summit will take place in Washington in two weeks time.
  • 04:31 That means Biden will be
  • 04:33 on the world stage but surrounded by
  • 04:36 US allies.
  • 04:37 That would be
  • 04:39 an opportune moment to have conversations with US allies.
  • 04:43 Democratic National Convention mid August.
  • 04:46 This needs to happen soon, However, if it's going to happen, and I think if it doesn't happen, Democrats lose.
  • 04:52 Do you think it happens even earlier?
  • 04:54 I think it's Kurds.
  • 04:55 Although
  • 04:56 having heard Tina's suggestion about the about the NATO summers, I think that does.
  • 05:00 Make quite a bit of sense.
  • 05:00 You could also
  • 05:01 bring Kamala rather more forward than you usually do to meet the the other dignitaries and
  • 05:07 get the kind of advantage that you get from hobnobbing with
  • 05:11 with world leaders in public.
  • 05:13 Which some politicians,
  • 05:15 I'm sorry, I'm not allowed to mention Britain,
  • 05:17 but the I didn't
  • 05:18 say the word UK.
  • 05:19 I didn't, I didn't say that.
  • 05:20 Yeah, I did not say I said nothing about that.
  • 05:23 In general, most good politicians think it's a good idea to be to appear with world leaders
  • 05:27 in the run up to a big election.
  • 05:29 And so you could
  • 05:30 it could be a coming out party for Camilla as well as a
  • 05:33 a big farewell occasion for.
  • 05:35 Yes.
  • 05:36 I've been told until like 2 weeks ago
  • 05:38 that the vice president almost had no chance of being like her.
  • 05:41 So her why the sudden change?
  • 05:43 Her ratings are up.
  • 05:44 Listen I mean her stock is literally but compared to Biden, not compared to Trump.
  • 05:48 Compared compared to Biden, can she beat Trump again?
  • 05:50 We need to see some polling simulations.
  • 05:53 Usually, you know, if she's elevated to the presidential candidate, AVP candidate normally doesn't move the needle.
  • 05:59 In this case, I think it would.
  • 06:01 We've never been there before.
  • 06:02 What I don't see, by the way, is to Californians on the ticket, much as I am a proud native Californian and you're not going to see Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris
  • 06:11 on one ticket.
  • 06:11 You got to have,
  • 06:12 I think, a mid Westerner.
  • 06:14 But again, we are
  • 06:15 ahead of the political process, and markets, as ever, are way ahead of the political process.