Macro Matters

US unemployment rate higher than expected

Nonfarm Payrolls 206K (est. 191K, prev. 218K)

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 136K (est. 160K, prev. 193K)

Unemployment rate 4.1% (est. 4.0%, prev. 4.0%)

Average hourly earnings YoY 3.9% (est. 3.9%, prev. 4.1%)

Payrolls by sector: largest gains from education/health and government.

Gold edges higher as US jobs report looms, fed rate cut expectations grow

Gold firmed up around $2,360 per ounce on Friday and was set to advance for the second straight week as investors look forward to a key US monthly jobs report that could cement expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates this year. Earlier this week, data pointed to a surprise contraction in services activity and disappointing private employment numbers in the US, supporting a dovish outlook on Fed policy. Markets are currently priced for about a 73% chance that the Fed would start cutting rates in September.

Source: Trading Economics

June CPI is expected to show further moderation ahead of the July 11 release

The headline CPI for June, set to be released on July 11, is anticipated to show a modest increase of 0.1%, primarily due to a significant seasonally adjusted decrease in gasoline prices. More importantly, the monthly core CPI is predicted to maintain a steady growth of 0.2%, with sectors such as used cars and recreation contributing to a slowing inflation rate. Year-over-year, the headline CPI is projected to drop to 3.1%, down from May's 3.3%, while the core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%.

Source: Moomoo

Smart Money Flow

The strong buyback activity by BofA's corporate clients, which is well above historical averages, is expected to be viewed positively by investors as it signals confidence in the companies' prospects and potential for future growth.

Volatility Historically Increases as Election Nears.

Bitcoin set for worst week in over a year on Mt. Gox liquidation fears.

Bitcoin was set for its biggest weekly fall in more than a year on Friday, as traders fretted over the likely dumping of tokens from defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox and further selling by leveraged players after the cryptocurrency's strong run.

The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency slid as much as 8% on the day to $53,523, its lowest since late February.

It was on track for a more than 12% weekly decline, its biggest since early November 2022.

Top Corporate News

Analysts reset Tesla stock price targets as robotaxi event looms.

Tesla shares have soared more than 68% since their late-April lows, powered in part by CEO Elon Musk's renewed focus on the group's self-driving and AI ambitions and a key investor vote that approved his delayed $56 billion pay deal.

Musk also plans to unveil the group's robotaxi prototype at an August 8 event, as the group pivots from its traditional carmaking roots to a broader business model lead by autonomous driving, energy storage and next-generation robotics.

In the meantime, a better-than-expected tally of second quarter vehicle deliveries, published yesterday, assuaged investor concerns that a slump in EV demand and the ongoing global price war would both eat into Tesla's sales and further reduce its already-narrowing profit margins.

Jeff Bezos to sell Amazon shares worth about $5 billion after stock hits record high.

Amazon founder and executive chair Jeff Bezos is planning to sell almost $5 billion worth of shares in the e-commerce giant, a regulatory filing showed, after its stock hit a record high.

The proposed sale of 25 million shares was disclosed in a notice filed after market hours on Tuesday. The stock had hit an all-time high of $200.43 during the session. It has jumped more than 30% so far this year, outpacing the 4% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

After the sale plan, Bezos would own about 912 million Amazon shares, or 8.8% of the outstanding stock.

He sold shares worth roughly $8.5 billion in February, after the stock rallied 80% in 2023.

Meta’s Threads considers ads as rivalry with X approaches first anniversary

Meta Platforms Inc.’s Threads, launched a year ago as Mark Zuckerberg’s response to Elon Musk’s struggles with X (formerly Twitter), is now gearing up to sell ads in its feed. The rivalry between Zuckerberg and Musk has evolved into a significant business competition. Threads, resembling X with features like likes, followers, and a user interaction-based feed, has grown to over 175 million monthly users from 150 million three months ago, spurred by user dissatisfaction with changes at X in July 2023.

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