The US non-farm payrolls report strengthened expectations for September interest rate cuts. According to the US non-farm payrolls report, 206,000 new jobs were added in June, higher than the forecast of 190,000, but the number of new non-farm payrolls dropped sharply in April and May, offsetting the impact of exceeding expectations in June. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to its highest level in two and a half years, and wage growth fell to its lowest level in three years, increasing the signs that the US labor market is cooling.

The commentator said that to consolidate the September interest rate cut expectations, another round of data is needed. More importantly, next week's inflation data, and next month's data. Some analysts say that recent data has “contradictions”. On the one hand, non-agricultural data boosted expectations for September interest rate cuts, and US stocks are rising. Multiple data shows that the same trend makes people worry about signs that the US economy is weakening.

Investors are optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut prospects. The CME Fed's observation tool shows that the possibility of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September increased from 66.5% to 71.1%. The possibility of cutting interest rates for the first time in November also increased, while the possibility of cutting interest rates for the second time in December rose to 46.5%. Investors fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year.

After the release of the non-agricultural data, US stocks and US debt rose, and the US dollar was under pressure. US debt initially fell in the short term because the number of new jobs exceeded expectations in June, but the market rebounded sharply after taking a close look at the “data details” of 0.11 million before the non-agricultural sector data for the first two months, and the yield curve became steeper.

On the commodities side, the US employment report raised expectations of interest rate cuts and reduced the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold assets. Pressure on the US dollar supported the rise in precious metals prices, and industrial basic metals in London generally rose. International crude oil fell sharply, but oil prices continued to rise for the fourth week because the decline in crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, indicating that oil demand would rise.

Internationally, the British Labour Party won an overwhelming victory in the election. The end of the British election will pave the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Although French polls show that Parliament may be undecided, today's Ipsos poll results show that Le Pen is expected to win 175-205 seats in the French parliamentary election on Sunday, far lower than the 289 required to obtain an absolute majority. The French/German 10-year treasury bond yield spread is as narrow as 65 basis points.

S&P points out that four years ago, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta all hit new highs

On Friday July 5, the NASDAQ, which is dominated by technology stocks, and the S&P 500 market rose all the way higher and closed at a record high; although the Dow, where blue chips converge, turned down in the short term but went up at the end of the session and closed higher at the end of the session; the Russell Small Cap Index maintained its decline. The NASDAQ, which has the largest increase among major indices, rose 1%.

By the close, the S&P market, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 all hit new closing highs. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs for the 34th and 23rd periods of the year, respectively. The Dow is approaching the all-time high of June 24:

The S&P 500 closed up 30.17 points, or 0.54%, to 5567.19 points, hitting a new closing high for three consecutive days. The Dow closed up 67.87 points, or 0.17%, to 39375.87 points. The NASDAQ closed up 164.46 points, or 0.90%, to 18352.76 points, hitting a record high for four consecutive days.

The three major stock indexes rose sharply this week. The NASDAQ rose 3.5%; the S&P 500 climbed up nearly 2%, the fourth week in five weeks; the Dow rose nearly 0.7%. However, Russell's small-cap stocks had the worst performance, falling 1%, and declined slightly during the year. Compared with the S&P market, which rose 16.7% during the year, and the NASDAQ rose 22.3%.

The NASDAQ 100 closed up 1.02%, a record closing high for three consecutive days; the NASDAQ Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of NASDAQ 100 technology constituents, closed 1.17% to a new closing high; Russell 2000 small-cap stocks closed down 0.49%; and the “Panic Index” VIX closed up 1.71% to 12.47.

Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, the S&P Telecom services sector closed up 2.74%, the optional consumer sector rose 0.85%, the information technology/technology sector rose 0.49%, the financial sector closed down 0.28%, the industrial sector fell 0.4%, and the energy sector fell 1.52%.

This week, the telecommunications sector has accumulated a cumulative increase of 3.91%, the technology sector up 3.85%, the optional consumer goods sector up 3.75%, the consumer goods sector up 1.03%, the financial sector up 0.93%, the industrial sector down 0.56%, the utilities sector up 0.56%, the real estate sector down 0.23%, the raw materials sector down 0.46%, the healthcare sector down 0.96%, and the energy sector down 1.27%.

Star tech stocks generally rose, and Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta hit record highs. Tesla closed up 2.09%, rising for eight consecutive days, rising 27.12% this week and rising about 38% in eight days, close to turning up during the year; the “metaverse company” Meta closed 5.87% to a new high, rising 7.08% this week; Google A closed 2.57%, a record closing high for two consecutive days, rising 4.64% this week for five consecutive weeks. Apple closed up 2.16%, hitting a record high for four consecutive days, rising 7.46% this week for two weeks; Microsoft rose 1.47%, which was also a record high for the fourth day in a row, and the US stock market capitalization throne was close to Apple, and Amazon rose 1.22% to level the all-time high.

Chip stocks had mixed ups and downs. After rising 0.9%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned down for a while, and eventually rose slightly. It remained stable above 5,600 points and hovered at a two-week high, rising 3.4% throughout the week, while SOXX, an industry ETF, closed up 0.2%. Nvidia dived at the end of the session and closed down 1.91%, ranking third in US stocks with a market capitalization of 3.1 trillion dollars. This week's rise of nearly 2% ended two weeks of continuous decline; Nvidia doubled and the ETF fell 3.8%.

Additionally, Arm Holdings rose 7.7%, along with TSMC's US stocks, which rose 0.8%, to a record high. AMD rose 4.88%, Intel rose 2.53%, Qualcomm rose 0.95%, Ke Lei rose 0.22%, while Broadcom fell 1.5%, and Micron Technology fell 3.82%.

The trend of AI concept stocks is divided. SoundHound.ai rose 6.62%, Palantir rose 5.34%, and C3.ai rose 4.83%; CrowdStrike rose 0.65%, which is close to an all-time high of 0.31%; Snowflake rose 0.11%, while ultra-micro computers fell 0.05%, Dell 2.6%, and BigBear.ai fell 3.38%.

On the message:

Nvidia: Nvidia was rarely downgraded, and New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded Nvidia's rating to neutral, saying the valuation was worrying. The analyst believes that unless in a bull market, there is quite limited room for Nvidia's stock price to rise in the future. The latest stock price target for Nvidia is $135.

Amazon: Victoria Greene, chief investment officer of G Squared Private Wealth, said that Amazon's diversified business segments and investment projects are expected to help the company enter the $3 trillion market capitalization ranking: “Not only the retail business, but now there is also Amazon Web Services (AWS), a business segment with a higher profit margin, which is expected to reach 40% within the next five years. Amazon will join the $3 trillion market capitalization club within the next five years.”

China's stock index generally declined. Among ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 2.38% and climbed 0.18% this week. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 2.16%, rising 2.15% this week, ending a six-week downward trend. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 2.02%, pushing 5,900 points out of a two-week high and rising 2.83% this week.

Among popular Chinese securities, new car builders plummeted. Extreme Krypton fell 8.74%, NIO fell more than 5.1%, Xiaopeng fell more than 4.8%, and Ideal Auto fell 1.25%. NetEase fell more than 4.1%, Alibaba fell 1.39%, Baidu fell 1.21%, Pinduo fell 0.84%, JD fell 0.41%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) fell 0.68%, and Sohu rose about 2.4%; in addition, Zhongtong Express fell more than 3.6%, Vipshop fell 3.5%, New Oriental fell more than 3.4%, and Gaotu Education closed down more than 8.9%, and Netcom is expected to drop more than 6.4%.

Among the most volatile individual stocks:

Macy's, an established American department store, rose more than 9% after rising 14% to a one-month high. Reports say that an investor group raised the purchase price to about $24.80 per share, up from the previous 24 US dollars per share, and the total amount rose to about 6.9 billion US dollars.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index closed down 1.41%. The 24 constituent stocks failed across the board. J.P. Morgan Chase fell 1.87% to the bottom, Goldman Sachs fell 0.68% to the bottom, Citi fell 0.67%, Morgan Stanley fell 0.61%, and State Street Group “performed the best” by 0.57%. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Banks Index closed down 1.33%.

US gold and silver mining concept stocks closed higher across the board. For example, Gold Field rose 3.79%, Harmony Gold rose 3.74%, and McMoRan Copper rose 1.72%. Pan-American silver rose 2.77%. Furthermore, the gold ETF-SPDR closed up 1.35%, and the silver ETF-iShares rose 2.30%.

The 22 constituent stocks in the energy sector failed across the board. Valero Energy led the decline by 3.61%, while Schlumberger fell about 2.5%.

Most cryptocurrency concept stocks fell. Stronghold closed down 5.5% on Friday, MFH fell more than 5.4%, Marathon Digital fell more than 3.8%, and Canaan Technology's ADR fell about 2.3%.

The enthusiasm of retail investors to join group stocks continues unabated. Gauss Electronics rose 25.59%, Blackberry rose 0.4%, AMC Cinemas rose 0.4%, and Game Station fell 0.78%.

Investors are waiting for the French election results. European stocks ended two consecutive gains. Most of them fell on Friday. After the election results were released, the UK mid-market stock index rose more than 0.8%:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 0.18%, rising 1.01% this week. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed down 0.16% and climbed 1.74% this week.

The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.14%, with a cumulative increase of 1.32% this week; the French CAC 40 index closed down 0.26%, rising 2.62% this week; Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 0.35%, rising 2.51% this week; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 0.45%, rising 0.49% this week; Spain's IBEX 35 index closed down 0.39%, up 0.73% this week.

Among European stocks “Ocean Eleven,” Asmack closed up 0.89%, reaching a record high close to the 1,000 euro mark. It rose about 3% this week, and Novo Nordisk closed up 0.41%. Although Harvard University released a research report on the adverse effects of its diet pills, the company's stock price continued to rise for the second day in a row, falling 3.14% this week.

Among the most volatile individual stocks, strong orders and Samsung's performance led to a general rise in European chip stocks. Germany's Elsevang closed up nearly 18%. Danish pharmaceutical company Zeeland hit a record closing record for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 6.6% this week and a cumulative increase of more than 46% in 11 days.

Labor market cooling weighed down US bond yields. Short-term bond yields led the decline, all falling by about 10 basis points

At the end of the session, the interest rate sensitive two-year US Treasury yield fell 10.44 basis points to 4.6014%, falling 15.20 basis points this week; the yield on US 10-year bonds fell 8.42 basis points to 4.2745%. When the US non-farm payrolls report was released, it rebounded and then rose to a daily high of 4.3823% and instantly fell below 4.28%. It showed a volatile downward trend throughout the day, with a cumulative decline of 11.97 basis points this week.

Additionally, three-year US Treasury yields fell 9.76 basis points, 5-year US Treasury yields fell 10.03 basis points, and 7-year US Treasury yields fell 9.42 basis points. The 20-year US Treasury yield fell 6.16 basis points, and the 30-year US Treasury yield fell 5.75 basis points.

Eurozone's benchmark 10-year German bond yield fell 5.2 basis points to 2.556% at the end of the session, rising 5.55 basis points this week. The two-year German bond yield fell 5.3 basis points to 2.889%, rising 5.6 basis points this week.

French 10-year Treasury yields fell 6.7 basis points, falling 8.7 basis points this week; Italian 10-year Treasury yields fell 6.3 basis points, falling 13.7 basis points this week; Spanish 10-year Treasury yields fell 5.4 basis points, falling 7.8 basis points this week, and Greek 10-year Treasury yields fell 5.9 basis points. The UK 10-year Treasury yield fell 7.2 basis points to 4.125%. Following the announcement of the British Parliament election results and the change of ownership at 10 Downing Street, the two-year British bond yield “jumped low” and finally fell 6.3 basis points to 4.128% on “Non-Farm Day”, falling 9.3 basis points this week.

The US dollar index fell more than 0.2%, the yen once approached 162, and the cryptocurrency crashed

The US dollar index DXY, which measures a basket against six major currencies, fell 0.24% to 104.875 points. When the US non-farm payrolls report was released, it fell to a daily low of 104.825 points, then turned up briefly. The cumulative decline this week was 0.94% and stopped rising for four weeks.

The Bloomberg US dollar index fell 0.18% to 1260.27 points, down 0.73% this week.

This week, EUR/USD rose 1.18%, GBP/USD rose 1.35%, and USD/CHF fell 0.34%. Among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar rose 1.19% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.88% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.25% against the Canadian dollar.

The offshore renminbi rose as high as 150 points or 0.2% against the US dollar before the US market. At one point, it rose above 7.28 yuan. US stocks basically erased gains and returned to the 7.29 yuan line in the intraday market, and are still not far from an eight-month low.

The US dollar fell 0.33% against the yen to 160.74, falling below the 161 mark. It fell to a daily low of 160.35 when the non-farm payrolls report was released, and fell 0.09% this week, showing an overall upward trend.

As speculations about the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hike continue to heat up, Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest going long on AUD/USD. They predict that the AUD/NZD will rise further above 1.10 because the New Zealand Federal Reserve “will remain on hold next week and will not send a signal closer to raising interest rates.”

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies have declined. Bitcoin, the largest market capitalization leader, fell 5.30% to 56,655.00 US dollars, falling 6.08% this week. Ethereum, the second-largest, fell 4.76% to $2983.00, down 12.14% this week.

Oil prices fell about 1% on Friday, but strong demand prospects kept them rising for four consecutive weeks. US oil rose about 2% in a single week

WTI crude oil futures for August closed down $0.72, or nearly 0.86%, to $83.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for September closed down $0.89, or close to 1.02%, to $86.54 per barrel.

When US stocks hit a new daily high in early trading, they rose as high as $0.64 or 0.76% to $84.52, the highest since April 15. Oil, which is more actively traded, rose as high as $0.52 or 0.59% to $87.95; US stocks began trading in the middle of the day, and when US stocks hit a new low at the end of the day, US oil fell as deep as $0.86 or 1% to $83.02, and as low as $0.94 or 1% to $86.49.

Both types of oil prices have been rising for four consecutive weeks this week. US oil surged 2.1%, while oil rose slightly.

Analysts expect oil demand to be tighter in the third quarter as fuel demand recovers in summer. The latest inventory data released by the US EIA further validates this forecast.

UBS predicts that global oil demand will grow by 1.5 million b/d this year, which is higher than the long-term growth rate of 1.2 million b/d. As the OPEC+ production reduction agreement continues until September, inventories will drop further in the next few weeks, and it is expected that the price of crude oil may reach $90 per barrel in the third quarter.

Furthermore, J.P. Morgan also predicts that the price of Brent crude oil will reach $90 per barrel in August or September.

The US natural gas contract for August closed down about 4.09% to $2.319/million British thermal units. U.S. gasoline futures closed at $2.5591 per gallon.

“Non-agricultural” benefits supported the general rise of metals. Gold rose for two weeks to the highest level in May. This week, silver rose more than 7.63%, and copper rose more than 3.59%

COMEX August gold futures rose 1.3% to above $2,400 per ounce at the end of Friday. For the first time since June 7, COMEX July silver futures rose about 2.2% to $31.52 per ounce at the end of the session.

Spot gold only rose slightly before the US stock market. After the non-agricultural data was released, the price of gold continued to rise. At one point, US stocks rose 1.5% at the end of the session and pushed to the integer level of 2,340 US dollars, breaking a new high since May 22. The cumulative increase of 2.87% this week, for 2 consecutive weeks, is the biggest weekly increase in nearly 13 weeks.

Spot silver continued to rise after the announcement of the non-agricultural industry. At one point, US stocks rose 3.6% in midday trading, approaching the 31.5 US dollar mark. This week's increase was about 7.63%, the best weekly performance in nearly seven weeks.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said the latest non-farm payrolls data “preserves the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.” Swap traders currently expect a 75% chance of cutting interest rates within two months. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said, “Gold has had a good harvest this week, and precious metals have benefited from some weak US macro data.”

The weakening dollar caused London's industrial base metals to rise sharply on Friday. The economic weather vane “Dr. Copper” closed up 62 US dollars, pushing up the 0.01 million dollar mark, with a cumulative increase of more than 3.59% this week.

In addition, Lunan Aluminum closed higher of 13 US dollars to 2,536 US dollars/ton. Lunzinc closed up 14 US dollars to 3001 US dollars/ton, rising more than 2.14% this week. Lunn lead closed up $10 to $2,237 per tonne. Lunnickel closed higher at $124 to $17,341 per tonne. Renxi closed up 716 US dollars, or nearly 2.16%, to 3,8874 US dollars/ton, rising more than 3.46% this week.

The main driver behind the rise in copper prices on Friday was that US non-farm payrolls grew weaker than expected in June, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year were strengthened. Furthermore, some commentators pointed out that since copper shipments did not arrive in the US as expected, some traders took short compensation operations to reduce risk exposure, which also boosted copper prices. Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading, said that the inventory that was supposed to be shipped to the US has clearly not yet reached the US.