With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42.9x China Resources Microelectronics Limited (SHSE:688396) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 27x and even P/E's lower than 17x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

China Resources Microelectronics hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

How Is China Resources Microelectronics' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Resources Microelectronics would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 52%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 21% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 19% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 24% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Resources Microelectronics' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that China Resources Microelectronics currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with China Resources Microelectronics (including 1 which is a bit concerning).

You might be able to find a better investment than China Resources Microelectronics. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com