In a market dominated by large shareholders, trading volume is stagnating.
This week, emerging markets fell. While the Nikkei Average rose +3.36%, the growth market index fell by -0.56%, and the growth market 250 index fell by -0.57%, reflecting overwhelming dominance by the prime market. Continuing on from last week, funds flowed towards financial stocks and precision instruments in the prime market, leading to both the Nikkei Average and TOPIX reaching historic highs on July 4. The market capitalization of the prime market also exceeded 1,000 trillion yen for the first time in history, leading to a market dominated by large shareholders. As a result, trading volumes in the growth market are stagnating, with bio stocks such as Sanbio <4592>, which had previously been a driving force in the market, also showing mixed results. Emerging markets have been left out of the search.
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Expectations are high for a fresh start.
Next week's emerging markets are expected to be strong due to factors such as the completion of the accounting period for listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which is expected to result in a sell-off of more than 1 trillion yen. While the market has already factored in this to some extent, last week's significant rise may still weigh heavily on sentiment. However, there is a possibility that there will be a cyclical search for emerging markets. As selling pressure due to profit-taking on emerging markets has been building up in the first half of this week, it may be time for a fresh start. Although both the growth market index and the growth market 250 index were once turned back by the 75-day moving average line, they are now facing a situation where they are trying to surpass this level again. The rebound from the year-to-date low of May 30, based on the fact that the 25-day moving average line is trending upward, is expected to continue. If trading volume, which had been decreasing, begins to increase again, the upward momentum will increase. If a market environment is created in which trading volumes are consistently around 200 billion yen, investors' momentum will become bullish.
The pillar of the June market, which tried to rebound from the year-to-date low, was bio-related stocks such as Sanbio and Qualipps <4894>. However, Sanbio fell 24% on a weekly basis, partly due to credit regulations. While it may show a short-term rebound, it may be difficult for it to rise with trading volume without the lifting of credit restrictions. Next week, we should focus on stocks with a large market capitalization that have shown steady movements, such as GENDA and Lawyer.com. Additionally, since there are no new initial public offerings (IPOs) scheduled for next week, we anticipate investors will focus on recent ones. Stocks like Dozou Digital HD <202A>, which adjusted to near the initial price, Chordia Therapeutics <190A>, which reached a high for the week, and Dive <151A>, which is approaching a high from April when it was listed, should be of interest.
The June market attempted to rebound from the year-to-date low, with bio-related stocks such as Sanbio and Qualipps <4894> playing a major role. However, due to credit regulations, Sanbio fell 24% on a weekly basis. While it may show a short-term rebound, it may be difficult for it to rise with trading volume without the lifting of credit restrictions. Next week, we should focus on stocks with a large market capitalization that have shown steady movements, such as GENDA and Lawyer.com.
Additionally, since there are no new initial public offerings (IPOs) scheduled for next week, we anticipate investors will focus on recent ones. Stocks like Dozou Digital HD <202A>, which adjusted to near the initial price, Chordia Therapeutics <190A>, which reached a high for the week, and Dive <151A>, which is approaching a high from April when it was listed, should be of interest.