These 4 Measures Indicate That Timken (NYSE:TKR) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Timken (NYSE:TKR) Is Using Debt Extensively
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
當戴維·伊本(David Iben)提到“波動性不是我們關心的風險。我們關心的是避免資本永久損失。”時,他說得很好。看起來聰明的錢知道,通常涉及破產的債務是評估一家公司風險程度時的一個很重要的因素。我們注意到鐵姆肯公司(NYSE:TKR)在其資產負債表上確實有債務。但是股東們應該擔心其債務使用嗎?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業開始遇到困難無法用新的資本或自由現金流來償還。資本主義的一個方面就是“創造性破壞”的過程,其中銀行家毫不留情地清算失敗的企業。然而,更頻繁的(但仍然代價高昂)情況是公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久地稀釋股東權益,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,很多公司使用債務來資助創業板,沒有任何負面影響。考慮到公司的債務水平時,第一步是將其現金和債務合併考慮。
What Is Timken's Net Debt?
鐵姆肯的淨債務是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Timken had US$2.39b of debt, an increase on US$2.02b, over one year. However, it also had US$421.9m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.97b.
您可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數據,但是它顯示,截至2024年3月,鐵姆肯負債23.9億美元,較去年增加2.02億美元。不過,鐵姆肯也擁有421.9萬美元的現金,因此其淨債務爲19.7億美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240706/0-741934a7067b463eb78ae308032ac786-0-97fae0aadcba2eaf4d391dd7ead5a54d.png/big)
How Strong Is Timken's Balance Sheet?
鐵姆肯的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Timken had liabilities of US$1.44b due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.37b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$421.9m in cash and US$905.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.48b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,鐵姆肯的近期內有144億美元的負債到期,之後有237億美元的負債到期。與此相抵,其擁有4,219萬美元的現金和9,052萬美元的應收款項即將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額超過現金和近期應收款項合併的24.8億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Timken is worth US$5.63b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
鐵姆肯的這種赤字並不太糟糕,因爲它的價值達到了5.63億美元,因此如果需要,它可能能夠籌集足夠的資本來支撐其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們應該認真檢查它是否能夠在不稀釋股權的情況下管理其債務。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們通過將公司的淨債務與其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)相除,並計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何覆蓋其利息費用(利息覆蓋率)來衡量公司的債務負擔相對於其盈利能力。因此,我們同時考慮債務的絕對數量以及所支付的利率。
Timken has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 6.2 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Sadly, Timken's EBIT actually dropped 3.6% in the last year. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Timken's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
鐵姆肯的淨債務相當於EBITDA的2.2倍,這並不太多,但其利息覆蓋率看起來有點偏低,EBIT只有利息支出的6.2倍。雖然這些數字並沒有引起我們的警惕,但值得注意的是公司債務成本帶來了現實影響。不幸的是,鐵姆肯的EBIT在過去一年中實際下降了3.6%。如果該收益趨勢持續下去,它的債務負擔將變得沉重,就像一隻極地熊看着它唯一的幼崽的心臟一樣。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到了最多的關於債務的信息。然而,未來盈利,比任何其他因素都將決定鐵姆肯在未來保持健康的資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您關注未來,您可以查看此免費報告,其中包含分析師的盈利預測。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Timken's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬的現金而不是會計利潤來償還債務。因此,我們清楚地需要查看EBIT是否導致了相應的自由現金流。在過去三年中,鐵姆肯的自由現金流相當於EBIT的46%,低於我們的預期。這種疲軟的現金轉化使其更難處理債務。
Our View
我們的觀點
While Timken's level of total liabilities makes us cautious about it, its track record of (not) growing its EBIT is no better. But its not so bad at covering its interest expense with its EBIT. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Timken is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Timken , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
儘管鐵姆肯的總負債水平讓我們對其持謹慎態度,但其EBIT的增長記錄卻並不比這個更好。但其覆蓋利息支出的實力還不錯。從上述所有角度來看,我們認爲由於鐵姆肯的債務問題,作爲一種投資,它相對有一定的風險。並不是所有的風險都是壞事,因爲如果它能夠得到回報,它可以提高股價回報,但這種債務風險值得牢記。很明顯,我們分析債務時需要關注資產負債表。但並不是所有的投資風險都在資產負債表內——遠非如此。我們已經確認了鐵姆肯公司存在2個警告信號,了解它們應該是您的投資過程的一部分。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
總的來說,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包含這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或電郵 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?關於內容有所顧慮?直接和我們聯繫。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com