Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Dongfang Electric fair value estimate is HK$13.15
With HK$11.26 share price, Dongfang Electric appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
Analyst price target for 1072 is CN¥13.45, which is 2.3% above our fair value estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited (HKG:1072) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Dongfang Electric Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)
CN¥4.66b
CN¥2.31b
CN¥9.73b
CN¥2.03b
CN¥2.02b
CN¥2.04b
CN¥2.06b
CN¥2.09b
CN¥2.12b
CN¥2.16b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -0.07%
Est @ 0.59%
Est @ 1.06%
Est @ 1.39%
Est @ 1.62%
Est @ 1.78%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4%
CN¥4.3k
CN¥2.0k
CN¥7.6k
CN¥1.5k
CN¥1.4k
CN¥1.3k
CN¥1.2k
CN¥1.1k
CN¥1.0k
CN¥967
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥22b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.4%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥35b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= CN¥16b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥38b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$11.3, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SEHK:1072 Discounted Cash Flow July 7th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dongfang Electric as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.104. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Dongfang Electric
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Balance sheet summary for 1072.
Weakness
Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Electrical market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Is 1072 well equipped to handle threats?
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Dongfang Electric, there are three additional aspects you should further research:
Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Dongfang Electric that you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does 1072's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
