Bocom International expects that the mainland express delivery volume will increase by 15% to 151.9 billion pieces throughout the year and will continue to grow at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate in the future.
According to the research report released by Bocom International, the mainland express delivery volume in May increased by 24% year-on-year, which is consistent with the growth trend of physical e-commerce. It is expected that the growth rate in June will decrease by 9 percentage points due to the impact of off-season promotions, and the overall growth rate for the year will be 15% to 151.9 billion pieces, and will continue to grow at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate in the future.
The bank mentioned that the express delivery ticket price maintained a downward trend, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in May. The future still has a downward trend, but the decline is limited due to the following reasons: 1) companies attach importance to service quality, business volume, and balanced development of profits; 2) ZTO Express (02057), YTO Intl Exp (06123), and others are layouting for scattered and returned items.
The report stated that in terms of costs, the express delivery industry still has the potential to continue to optimize under the promotion of factors such as per capita transportation and classification costs in the economy of scale and increasing automation level. The operating data of express delivery companies in May are as follows: in terms of the same increase in single volume, Yunda (33%)>Shentong (29%)>YTO Express (28%)>SF Express (14%). In terms of the decrease in the average unit price, Yunda (-17%)> Shentong (-9%)>YTO Express (-4%)>SF Express (-1%).