澳洲联储6月会议纪要显示，决策者强调需要对通胀上行风险保持警惕。决策者指出，物价大幅上涨可能需要大幅提高利率。尽管6月份利率保持稳定，但5月份消费者物价指数(CPI)意外从之前的3.6%上升至4.0%，这引发了澳洲联储可能在9月份将现金利率上调至4.6%的警告。In the Asian market on Monday, the Australian dollar / US dollar oscillated and rose, once hitting a nearly half-year high of 0.6760, currently falling to around 0.6744. Due to high inflation prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to postpone interest rate cuts, the downside potential of the Australian dollar may be limited. Cash rate futures and swaps currently predict that the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates in September is close to 50%. Due to the slow growth of US employment, the US dollar may face challenges. CME's Fed Watch tool shows that the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September is close to 70.7%, higher than the 64.1% one week ago.
The signal of the 'black swan' of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hike in September is still strong, and the hawks have the upper hand in this round of inflation confrontation.
Minutes from the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia showed that decision-makers emphasized the need to remain vigilant about the upward inflation risks. The decision-makers pointed out that a significant increase in prices may require a significant increase in interest rates. Although interest rates remained stable in June, the consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 4.0% in May, prompting a warning that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise cash rates to 4.6% in September.
Data released last Friday showed that due to the slowdown in US non-farm payroll growth in May, the US dollar may face challenges. Although non-farm payrolls in June exceeded market expectations, the growth rate slowed compared to May. In addition, the unemployment rate rose slightly in June. This may lead traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as soon as possible.
CME's Fed Watch tool shows that the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September is close to 70.7%, higher than the 64.1% one week ago.
It is worth noting that private consumption contributes over 50% to the Australian economy. In the first quarter of 2024, the Australian economy grew 0.1%, and private consumption grew 0.4%. The increase in borrowing costs and savings may directly affect private consumption and lead to the first economic contraction since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In the long run, the last economic contraction in the Australian economy was in the third quarter of 2021, and there was a technical recession in 2020, the first time in nearly 30 years.
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What the market is urgently concerned about is whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will take the risk of economic collapse to deal with inflation.
David Ingles, Bloomberg Television's chief market editor in the Asia-Pacific region, raised the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates to cope with higher-than-expected inflation data. He said: "After Australia announced its third higher-than-expected inflation report, cash rate futures and swaps are currently predicting a 50% likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates in September."
The increase in credit demand may further increase this possibility. At the same time, US inflation will be the focus of the Federal Reserve this week.
Later on Monday, US consumer inflation expectations may be of interest to investors. Economists expect that US consumer inflation expectations will decrease from 3.2% in May to 3.0% in June.
Consumer inflation expectations reports are leading indicators of the US CPI report, and softening inflation expectations may ease consumer spending and curb demand-driven inflation. A softening inflation outlook may cause consumers to delay purchases because they expect future prices to fall.
The trend of declining consumer spending and weakening inflation pressures may lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the long run, consumer inflation expectations soared to 6.8% in June 2022, and then dropped to 3.0% in December 2023. After rising in April, falling below 3% may increase investors' hopes for a soft US CPI report on July 11.
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Will consumer inflation expectations data prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more moderate stance? Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday, and may mention the trend of consumer inflation expectations in his testimony.
In the short term, the Australian dollar / US dollar is still bullish, and the recent trend depends on Australian consumer-related data, Chinese data, and the US CPI report. Although speculation about a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hike continues to increase, weaker-than-expected US CPI report may consolidate the Federal Reserve's determination to cut interest rates in September.
Given the importance of the US CPI report for the Federal Reserve's interest rate trend, investors must remain vigilant. Stay ahead of market trends with real-time updates and expert opinions on Australian economic trends and the Australian dollar / US dollar.
Technical analysis of the Australian dollar/US dollar
FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason said that the Australian dollar / US dollar is hovering above the 50-day and 200-day EMA, confirming the bullish price signal.
The Australian dollar/US dollar broke through the key level of 0.67500 US dollars, which may push the bulls towards the resistance level of 0.67967 US dollars. Australian housing loan trends and US consumer inflation expectations need to be considered by investors.
On the contrary, if the Australian dollar/US dollar falls below the support level of 0.67003 US dollars, it may indicate that it will fall towards the 50-day moving average.
With a 14-day daily RSI reading of 64.25, the Australian dollar may rise to the resistance level of 0.67967 US dollars, and then enter the overbought area.
