据悉，From new movie reviews to key economic data, from Federal Reserve rate cuts to US elections... Predicting markets is quietly rising.
On Monday, Interactive Brokers, the electronic trading pioneer founded by Thomas Peterffy, will launch the ForecastEx prediction platform, offering contract products based on key economic data releases, predicting data including weekly jobless claims and monthly consumer confidence data.
Coincidentally, in April, billionaire Jeff Yass's trading company Susquehanna International Group (SIG) also established a dedicated team on the Kalshi platform, providing users with speculative opportunities on events such as the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
It is reported that the prediction contracts on the Kalshi platform usually have only two bets, "yes" or "no". If correct, the platform will pay individuals $1 per contract, while there is no payment for incorrect predictions. Before the expiration of the contract, its price will fluctuate based on the changes in market expectations.
Related data shows that since 2021, the number of new prediction contracts per year has exceeded the total of the previous 15 years. In the past year, the monthly trading volume of prediction contract products under SIG and Kalshi has increased by 227%.
Steve Sanders, Head of Marketing and Product Development at Interactive Brokers stated:
"Hedge funds may use the ForecastEx platform to provide risk protection for their investment portfolios, and individual investors may also use it to predict the direction of economic indicators."
However, as the prediction market heats up, regulatory agencies have also taken notice of this "new business".
Some analysts pointed out that the prediction market essentially belongs to the category of futures contracts and is therefore regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In May of this year, the CFTC announced a new rule: banning contracts based on political contests, award ceremonies, or sports competitions, stating that these are contrary to the "public interest".
CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam believes that these specific themed contract products, especially political ones, are beyond the agency's jurisdiction and may even force regulatory agencies to be labeled as "manipulating elections".
However, currently PredictIt is the only platform that can provide prediction contracts related to US elections; Last year, Kalshi sued the CFTC after it banned the platform from offering contract products related to elections.
