According to the survey data released on Tuesday, the business environment in Australia deteriorated faster than expected in June, and the employment prospects were significantly affected. The market's expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia has risen significantly since hawkish comments by RBA officials last month. However, with the easing of cost pressures, business confidence has slightly increased. National Australia Bank (NAB) survey shows that its compiled Australian business conditions index fell 2 points to +4, far below the long-term average level. In contrast, the business confidence index rebounded 6 points to +4, and both the manufacturing and wholesale industry indexes grew slightly.

Specifically, in the measured indicators, Australia's employment prosperity index fell 6 points to 0, while the sales index remained basically stable. Gareth Spence, NAB's Australian economic director, said: "Although this is only one month's data, the employment index is currently below the long-term average level, which may indicate that the overall slowdown of the Australian economy is more strongly transmitted to labor demand. "

The survey also found that with the slowdown in labor and procurement costs, there are encouraging signs of cooling in Australia's long-standing price pressures. Data shows that the quarterly inflation rate of overall product prices has dropped to 0.7%, while retail prices remain at 1.5%."Price pressures continue to trend lower, though the data is certainly volatile," Spence said.

"Price pressures continue to trend lower, though the data is certainly volatile," Spence said.

It is understood that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35% for five consecutive meetings last month. RBA officials also issued hawkish warning comments, saying that they will continue to be vigilant against the risk of rising inflation and may need to further tighten policies if inflation rises.

Economists and the currency market still believe that the RBA's next move is to cut interest rates rather than raise them, but it may not happen until early 2025, which could lead to the RBA becoming one of the last major central banks to launch an easing cycle. However, with recent data suggesting weakness in Australia's labor market and the continued deterioration of consumer spending and business operating environments, the second half of 2024 may see the RBA announce its first interest rate cut since the start of the hiking cycle. "The RBA committee seems uncertain whether inflation is slowing, and if concerns about sustained price pressures persist, we believe the RBA is more likely to keep cash rates unchanged for longer than to raise them again," said the analysis team at Pacific Bank.

"The RBA committee seems uncertain whether inflation is slowing, and if concerns about sustained price pressures persist, we believe the RBA is more likely to keep cash rates unchanged for longer than to raise them again," said the analysis team at Pacific Bank.